Before we make our sleeper pick, we should first define what we mean here. No, we are not making a definitive choice as to who will win the World Cup. That is not what we mean by sleeper. We did that in the previous section, and if you missed it, click the section titled What We Think Will Happen. What we are doing here is outlining a team that is not one of the favorites who could surprise everybody and make its way to the final game. We don’t actually believe it will happen, but if things break right, it could.

   Obviously the overwhelming favorite is Brazil, and with 6 World Cup titles between them, it is hard to argue against them. So I’m not going to. What I’m going to do is look at the next tier of teams in this tournament...

         The home team, Germany, have a lot of young talent and a coach in Jurgen Klinsmann that has a will to win and stays out of their way. Plus they generally tend to go far when this tournament is contested on European soil. As was exemplified at Korea/Japan, Germany is clearly capable of getting to the final game with less than spectacular talent, usually meaning that the whole is greater than the sum of their parts. There certainly is more individual talent to get excited about now than there was four years ago. That said, they are just too young in too many important place – in the back, up front – and as much as I love Michael Ballack, I don’t think even he can get bring this young a bunch that trophy. I’m just picturing a mistake at a crucial moment that probably drops them out at the semi-final stage.

         Portugal is anxious to prove that they were the best team at Euro 2004 despite who won. Like the Germans they are young in critical places, too, but their youth are already world-class players and are battle tested on the international scene. Cristiano Ronaldo is ready to put his imprimatur on a major tournament, and Korea/Japan notwithstanding they feel they are ready to finally go that one last mile  to a championship. But the road along the way is paved with one insurmountable roadblock – namely Brazil. That’s enough for me to not put my money on Portugal.

         France would seem to be a sexy pick. They are back on European soil where they experienced their greatest success. There is still a plethora of stars here – Henry, Zidane, Vieira – from the greatest generation who can still get it done on the international stage and want to end their tenure with the squad with a bang. They seem to be pretty popular with the odds makers. And there is the crux of my problem with them. By definition a sleeper has to be a team that is good but not getting much respect from bettors. So picking France just doesn’t get you much bang for your buck.

         Mexico would seem to fit the bill. This is probably the most talented and organized Mexican side ever, and they are playing well right now, as evidenced by their #6 rank in the latest FIFA world rankings. They’ve played the best national sides tough, and they have a player or two – Jarred Borgetti and Rafael Marquez come immediately to mind – who are making a significant impact both internationally and on the European club stage. But Mexico is one of those Western Hemisphere teams only goes but so far when the World Cup is contested in Europe.

         As usual, Spain has as much talent as anybody, with a wealth of riches up and down the lineup. Because they always drop out of the tournament before they are expected to, Spain has something to prove. This time around there is reason for optimism because of the relatively weak draw that should easily see them through to the next round. Clearly they have the ability to make it to the final game, but it is hard for me to take a flyer on them because they always find a way of disappointing.

         I wouldn’t chance my money on any of the aforementioned teams, but the Czech Republic is a real possibility. They have a strong, creative midfield including Tomas Galasek and Tomas Rosicky and anchored by world-class innovator Pavel Nedved. They have one of the five best goalkeepers in the world in Petr Cech. And up front they have Milan Baros, who has scored a lot of goals in international competitions. In Karel Bruckner they have a tactically creative coach who knows how to adjust his side to whatever needs to be done on at the moment. And at 25-1 they are not the odds makers’ favorite despite the fact that this side is ranked second in the world according to FIFA. Given their Group E draw with Italy, Ghana and the United States they will clearly have the most difficult path to Berlin than anybody in this tournament…

         …But if I had to take a chance on somebody, then at 25-1 a team this good would be my choice. Besides, I do have selfish reasons for making the Czech Republic the sleeper. At these odds it was too good of an opportunity to pass up, so I’ve already put $10 on them at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.