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| Argentina | Costa Rica | Croatia | England | Italy | Netherlands |
Serbia & Montenegro |
South Korea |
Ukraine |
These
nine teams have aspirations of making it through to the second round. One or two
of the teams listed here could pull off an upset in the first round and win
their group outright. Or one or two of these teams, because of the competitive
nature of the group they are in, could be upset themselves and not even make it
into the second round. There are three teams grouped here that have six World
Cup titles between, so those three have perennial expectations to make a run for
that 12-pound trophy no matter what their recent form has been. All nine teams
in this section believe they have a legitimate shot at challenging the elite
teams for a chance at the World Cup, and they have some intangible quality that
can lead them to that goal.
I’m
inventing a new definition. Have you ever heard of a “But For” team? That is
a talented and expected team that would have accomplished something great or won
a championship “but for” some reason they didn’t. Get it? They would be a
favorite “but for”. They would have won it all “but for”.
At
the moment, Argentina fits this
definition. A former two-time winner of this tournament and a squad as
perpetually talented as anybody, they clearly are expected to win every time
they take the pitch. However, according to Argentine fans, media and apologists,
something not of their doing and out of their control always seems to steal
victory from the jaws of defeat. Argentina would go deep into the World Cup
“but for” being drawn into those colossally impossible “Groups of
Death”. Argentina would have won the Copa America “but for” a last-minute
equalizer by Brazil that sent the final game into extra time, where Brazil won
it. Argentina would have won the Confederations Cup “but for” losing a 4-1 embarrassment to Brazil again.
They would have finished top of their qualifying group for this tournament
“but for” falling short on goal differential to – wait for it –
Brazil…
…”But
for” Brazil, Argentina would be the best team in the world…
Argentina
went into Korea/Japan as one of the favorites; nobody was playing better in the
run-up. In the six years leading up to 2002 they had won everything there is to
win except the World Cup: The World Under-17 Championship, the World Under-21
Championship, the Copa America, even their qualifying group rather effortlessly
like Sherman rampaging through Atlanta. Argentina had been so good for so long
that they won the 2001 Copa America mostly with players from their Under-21
side.
That’s
why crashing out of Korea/Japan at the group stage was as shocking and
disappointing as it was for them. Since then Argentina’s been relatively in
form but not nearly the world-beaters they were before, falling just short in
just about every competition they’ve entered. Jose Pekerman is at the helm
now. The man responsible for Argentina’s success at the youth level for so
many of their under-17 and under-21 championships, he was put in charge with the
hope that he could translate that youth level success to the senior squad.
“But
for” Brazil, Argentina have been the most successful country in combining
South American skill and creativity with European style and tactics, the latter
element coming naturally since a large portion of the squad is made up of
players who either currently ply their trade in Europe or have at some point.
Pekerman has maintained previous coach Marcelo Bielsa’s 3-3-1-3 formation,
which accentuates their ability to press in the middle and then rapidly switch
the play out on the wings. Results have been mixed: they scored 29 goals in
eighteen qualifying matches – a far cry from the 39 they scored in qualifying
four years earlier – while giving up a middling 17 goals. Argentina was
undefeated at home and all over the map on the road.
Argentina’s
economy collapsed not to long after the last World Cup, which gravely affected
Argentine football. As with everything else in Argentine society, it’s
football infrastructure was unable to maintain itself as virtually all wages
could not be paid and players were sold to European concerns at cut-rate prices
the moment any of them showed even a minimum amount of potential. As a result,
most clubs rushed youngsters into their senior sides long before they were
ready. There is still tons of talent on the ground, but the Argentines have had
to press a lot of young talent into action ahead of time.
Probably
the biggest concern comes at the back, where Argentina has not been able to come
up with a dependable goalkeeper in years and the defense has performed poorly.
Roberto Arbondanzieri is the best they have in goal, which isn’t very
reassuring, and the reserve netminders (Leo Franco, German Lux) aren’t any
better. Center-backs Walter Samuel and Fabricio Coloccini have world-class
talent but have yet to prove it both for club and country, and Gabriel Heinze is
probably the best pure defender they have and is even dangerous going forward
but tore knee ligaments in September and hasn’t been back since (his
availability for Germany is very doubtful). Roberto Ayala has made good on his
world-class billing but is getting long in the tooth and just doesn’t have the
stamina and strength he once had. Juan Pablo Sorin, more of a natural
center-half, is actually the best defender they have right now. He covers a lot
of ground and with his fighting spirit is probably the heart and soul of the
defense. Plus, he is their best defender going forward and is actually a very
good finisher in front of goal.
This
squad has one of the more imaginative midfields there is. Esteban Cambiasso is a
solid stopper in front of the back three and links up beautifully going forward.
The inspiration going forward, though, are Juan Roan Riquelme and Pablo Aimer.
Most forward moves go through them and they organize the play well, so their
teammates rely on them. Javier Mascherino has been the inventive inspiration in
front of the midfield but his availability is in question due to injury.
Pekerman brings Sorin into the attack with impunity.
Argentina
has arguably the most creative and innovative forward attack “but for”
Brazil. That said there is only one striker, Hernan Crespo, who scores with any
regularity. Pekerman employs a three-man attack line with Crespo in front of
goal, and it appears he is best served with forwards Lionel Messi and Carlos
Tevez supplying him from the flanks. Messi and Tevez are brilliantly inventive
forwards but they are not really experienced. It will be interesting to see if
Pekerman calls up Javier Saviola, who in sin the Messi and Tevez mold and who
Argentina certainly could have used four years ago.
Normally,
there is still a feeling that Argentina are a match for anyone, even in a Group
of Death draw that includes Holland, Serbia & Montenegro and the Ivory
Coast. But this time around there is more hope than expectation because there is
a crises of confidence due to their spectacular failure four years ago and some
mediocre, goal-shy performances in the run-up to this year’s tournament. A
perceived lack of enthusiasm and mental toughness leads many to believe that if
they can’t get their heads together they will again fail to live up to their
billing as an elite football power.
Key Player: Lionel Messi.
Sorin is clearly more important as this team’s most driven player, and he will
have to instill backbone and confidence in Argentina with his forward flair and
his buts at the back. But anybody who has seen the 18-year-old Messi play
realizes that they are seeing a special and thrilling player they haven’t in
more than 12 years. Riquelme and Aimar are clearly the creative center but Messi
is a genius when on the ball and he has the added advantage of youthful
enthusiasm, just what this team needs. Just put him on the pitch, get him the
ball and watch him work his magic.
From a pure
talent perspective, there doesn’t seem to be much about Costa Rica
to get excited about. Yet believe it or not there is more talent on the ground
on the squad than there has been in years. While the talent here is short on
overseas experience, the local players are respected on the Latin American club
scene. The power club in Costa Rica, Sabrissa, has done well in international
club competitions, going deep in the Copa Sudamerica and Copa Libertadores
against some of the best club sides from Brazil and Argentina, and there will be
a lot of players from Sabrissa manning the national side.
Costa Rica has had some mixed results on football’s biggest stage. After making it to the knockout stage of Italia ’90, the national team disappointed in qualification for the next two World Cups before making it back for Korea/Japan. In a group that included third-place finishers Turkey and champions Brazil, Costa Rica finished third but only on goal differential to Turkey – and they even hung a three-spot on Brazil-- so they clearly made some noise.
After
unexpectedly winning their qualification group in 2002 qualification was much
more difficult this time around. In ten matches they scored a pedestrian 15
goals while giving up 14. So sadly neither defense nor attack are their
strengths.
That
said, Costa Rica is a surprisingly entertaining side that prides itself on
playing with a great deal of flair and skill, yet their biggest challenge will
be to continue to play in this way without leaving themselves vulnerable in
defense, especially in an international venue as challenging as the World Cup.
Alexandre
Guimaraes is back for a second go-round as the coach, the position he held with
the Ticos at Korea/Japan. While he was pleased with the heart and bite that his
team showed four years ago, he clearly feels that they have some unfinished
business in this tournament. Guimaraes favors using a 3-5-2 formation but has
stuck with a 4-4-2 formation during qualification and utilized by his
predecessor Jorge Luis Pinto. But now that he has had time to tinker it is
believed that he will revert to form and unveil the 3-5-2 during the run-up to
the World Cup.
It’s
not hard to tell that Guimaraes has little faith in his defense because his
recent rosters have had as many as ten defenders or defensive-minded players, so
he clearly is still trying to find a mix in the back that he can live with.
Jervis Drummond, Luis Marin, Michael Umana and particularly Gilberto Martinez,
who plays anywhere in the back but is most comfortable in the center, saw a
lion’s share of the action during qualification. But their lack of aerial
strength and tendency not to mark closely enough has Guimaraes still trying out
other players this late in the run-up, most notably Roy Miller, Leonardo
Gonzalez and Gilberto Vidal, none of whom have made a mark for themselves. Even
the goalkeeping has been plagued with a lack of consistency, where Alvaro Mesin
had gotten the call most of the time but Jose Porras has seen a lot of
first-choice duty lately.
If
Guimaraes is going to try and switch to a more ball-control five-man midfield,
then it is imperative that Danny Fonseca and Especially Walter Centeno pull the
strings and make things happen. These two midfield creators were the primary
source of goals when the forwards weren’t scoring. It isn’t a coincidence
that when these two were on their game Costa Rica scored goals in bunches, and
when they disappeared Costa Rica didn’t score at all. Carlos Hernandez has not
been the stopper in front of the defense they’ve needed him to be but he has
been a surprising source of flair going forward. And therein lies the problem: a
decided lack of strength and physicality is what characterizes this side even in
the midfield. You can be sure that even the wingers Carlos Hernandez and
Mauricio Solis will scheme in attack but little else going back.
Costa
Rica’s best known player is Paulo Wanchope up front, the team’s all-time
leading scorer and still in-form finisher. The only player with a wealth of
overseas experience, he can be counted on to take his chances in the box. His
strike partner Ronald Gomez had been almost unstoppable of late, and the two
seem to have formed a synergy that works. Alvaro Saborio looks to be the next
choice coming off the bench.
The
Ticos could have gotten a much tougher Group A draw than Germany, Poland and
Ecuador, and the team is quietly enthusiastic about their prospects. Even though
they have never played Germany, have never beaten Poland the two times they
played them and have only one win in eight previous meetings with Ecuador,
Guimaraes has correctly surmised that none of these three has been playing
especially well of late, so he is optimistic that the internal turmoil all three
teams are experiencing will carry them into June. Costa Rica is an entertaining
team that plays with flair, and they have the ability to make their opponents
pay the price for underestimating them.
Key Player: Walter Centeno.
He will be especially important if Guimaraes switches to the favored 3-5-2 he
has been experimenting with in recent friendlies. Then they are going to have to
do more than just push forward in numbers and just score. But no matter what
formation Guimaraes utilizes, they are going to have to control the tempo and
the possession from the midfield. Add to that the fact that against Germany and
Poland, two teams employing rigid European styles, they are going to have to
create chances against two inflexible backlines. Centeno and Danny Fonseca are
keys to that end.
If there is
one up-and-coming national side that has become a mainstay on the international
scene over the last eight years that lacks an international trophy but nobody is
in any hurry to face it is Croatia.
France ’98 was their coming-out party, where Croatia undressed the likes of
Germany and the Netherlands and came closer to defeating eventual champions
France than anybody on their way to finishing third. With workmanlike efficiency
they ran through their not-so-easy qualifying groups without a loss to get to
both Korea/Japan and Germany, a noteworthy achievement for a country that has
only been in existence for a little over 14 years?
The fact is that there has always been a wealth of football talent on the shores of the Adriatic; for decades it was appropriated by Yugoslavia. The rest of the world finally found that out eight years ago. While their performance four years ago may have been lackluster and uninspiring, when it came time to rebuild the side they had no problem drawing from that pool of talent. That they now have the worldwide respect that they do is no mean feat for a nation of fewer than five million people.
Croatia
probably would have reached the World Cup no matter who they brought in as
coach, but much of the credit for their qualification this time goes to Zlatko
Kranjcar, the feisty, irascible taciturn with a preference for attacking play
and a nose for players with heart and fighting spirit. But while Kranjcar’s
charges were still the grinders that have always characterized Croatian
football, they were much more than that. This incarnation of the national side
may not have the inventive flair of past world-beaters but they don’t spend a
lot of time letting moss grow beneath their feet. Kranjcar’s 3-4-1-2 formation
spreads the field more than anybody around, attacking down the wings as much as
possible and making opposing defenses have spread itself thin.
The
one thing you can count on is the further east in Europe you go the more you
find immovable defenders who will fight, stand their ground and take on anybody.
Croatia is no different. In their attack-minded formation, the backline had
better be hard. Croatia’s three-man backline of Stjepen Tomas, Robert Kovac
and Josip Simunic is very well set and as organized as they come. Discipline is
the key ingredient with these three; they rarely leave their defensive
responsibilities to go forward. This back three is so good that international
center-back Dario Simic can only wait on the bench for his turn. Cat-quick and
reflexive Stipe Pletikosa is one of the most in-demand keepers in world football
but prefers to remain at Hadjuk Split. Trying to get a quality shot through
these three is quite a chore.
Igor
Tudor, the 27-year-old former central defensive veteran of this side making his
third consecutive trip to the World Cup, has made the successful transition to
holding/defensive midfielder, allowing his vision and distribution to be even
more effective just in front of the back three. The sparkling attacking down the
wings is brought courtesy of Darijo Srna and Marko Babic, both of whom are pacy
and exhibit adept passing and free-kick taking while still showing aggression,
confidence and skill in the tackle when fulfilling their defensive
responsibilities. Srna and Babic are ever-present when flying down the wings
from touchline to touchline. Especially Srna, who scored five goals in
qualifying. The central all-rounder is Josep Simunic, who does it all in the 80
yards between penalty areas.
If
Kranjcar wants to switch the attacking focus from the wings to the center, there
are few better than his son, Nico Kranjar, who occupies the hole just behind the
strikers and who has a nose for finding either striker or the wingers streaking
into the penalty area. The two primary men up front are Ivica Olic and Dado Prso,
both of whom are excellent in the air, at keeping possession and playing in
their teammates in the attack. Neither one of them score a lot of goals, but its
not as if they can’t; the focus of the Croatian attack is to keep the ball
moving and find the open man. If they need instant finishing, Bosko Balaban
comes in off the bench.
If
there is any weakness on this side it is their depth, where there are plenty of
youngsters but little international experience and very few of whom are gaining
experience abroad. That said, Kranjcar senior certainly has a busload of
confidence in his starting XI. Although not an easy task, they have every
expectation of getting through their Group F draw with Brazil, Australia and
Japan and into the second round, where either Italy or the Czech Republic
awaits. Croatia looks to have a degree of “home field” advantage, as quite a
few of their starting XI ply their trade in Germany, and there is a very large
Croatian population in Germany, so they may have fan support surpassed only by
the Germans.
Key Player: Dado Prso.
Croatia certainly has a midfield second to no one in attack, but this is the
World Cup, and on this stage the teams that get the furthest have finishers up
front. Need Proof? At France ’98 they established Davor Sukor up front and
finished in third; at Korea/Japan four years later their forwards didn’t score
a single goal and they got drop-kicked out of the tournament at the group stage.
Their tournament campaign is not an easy one; with the possible exception of
Brazil they will be up against sides that play a rigid European style which
closes down the middle. So wingers Darijo Srna and Marko Babic become especially
important in servicing their forwards.
It’s kind
of hard to pinpoint why, but for some reason questions and controversy have
followed England into the World Cup
for eight years now. A side which appears to have the talent and the moxie to go
deep into every international tournament in which they participate always seems
to fall prey to Murphy’s Law. If it isn’t scandal then it’s dubious roster
choices; if it isn’t roster choices then it’s questionable tactics, if it
isn’t tactics then it’s injuries to key players at the most inopportune
time; if it isn’t injuries then it’s unpreparedness; if it isn’t
unpreparedness then it’s bad officiating – it’s always something with this
team. My God, if you listen to the typical British fan then England would have
won every World Cup going back 40 years if it wasn’t for something.
It’s hard to argue with any of this going into this year’s tournament, though. Their coach, Sven Goran Eriksson, just courts scandal: He has been caught doing things from bad-mouthing some of his players to an undercover tabloid reporter (as if there’s any other kind in England) posing as a wealthy sheikh passenger on a plane, to having extramarital liaisons with female employees of England’s Football Association. Now that it has been announced that he will resign his post after the World Cup, there is the question of the distraction caused by who will replace a lame-duck coach and whether his players will even listen to him. And to throw coal on the fire, injury has once again reared its ugly head: Key forward Wayne Rooney broke his foot just six weeks before England’s opening fixture, and world-class striker Michael Owen suffered the same injury in January and is still not back on the pitch as of this writing.
Don’t
think all of the questions and controversy hasn’t had an affect on England
over the past two years. England qualified by just barely winning a
qualification group that should have been much easier than it was, and all of
their positive results were far less than convincing; they managed just 17 goals
in 10 qualifying matches, a pedestrian number for a team that thinks of itself
as among the football elite.
Still,
this relatively talented though erratic side has a chance at sending its coach
off into the sunset on a high because of the relatively easy Group B they were
drawn in. “Relative” being the operative word in that the draw could have
been much worse; while Trinidad & Tobago might be their easiest fixture,
Paraguay is certainly no pushover, and Sweden has managed at least a result
every time since 1968.
The
cerebral Eriksson uses a base 4-4-2 formation, and his first two years at the
helm the formation morphed into whatever it is England needed at any given
moment. But for the last two years Eriksson’s tactics have become more rigid
in the classical English sense, and that may be why one of the reasons,
Murphy’s Law aside, that they have been experiencing irregular results since.
Also, his line-up has become pretty well set of late, unlike his first two years
when he scoured the nationwide leagues from the Premiership on down looking for
hungry youngsters who had something to prove and could be sold on the tactics
and direction he wanted to employ.
What
has been missing amongst the talent England has had over the last eight years
was someone with some backbone and a undeniable will to win. They now have two
players who exhibit that trait (it was three, but the third player, Wayne
Rooney, won’t be available to them). The first player, John Terry, anchors the
four-man backline. From his perch in the center of defense he just refuses to
lose, and is just the kind of player with a bad disposition that they need. Rio
Ferdinand is the other more skilled defender in the center, but as good as he is
he doesn’t have Terry’s heart, which is why the defense gets its spirit from
Terry. Gary Neville is the spirited winger down the right flank, but it will be
interesting to see if Ashley Cole, who is the best all-around fullback they
have, will be healthy in time. If not, Wayne Bridge is an acceptable replacement
but he isn’t in Cole’s league. Ledley King showed some great heart in the
center of defense at Euro 2004, and the side would be best served if Sol
Campbell, who used to be at the heart of the defense, just comes off the bench
(because of age and injuries he just doesn’t have the same form). Jamie
Carragher will make the team as a jack-of-all-trades defender who can play
anywhere in the back.
Paul
Robinson has finally wrestled the first-choice goalkeeping job away from David
James, who was ordinary at best. Robinson’s handling and reflexes are above
average, but where he excels are those booming goal kicks into the opposition
penalty area on the fly.
The
second player with backbone is midfielder Frank Lampard, arguably the best
midfielder in Europe not named Ronaldinho or Ballack. While he shows great skill
and joie do vive when moving forward it is his fearlessness and ability to take
people on that invigorates the rest of the squad. This allows Steven Gerrard,
who is a player in the mold of Lampard, to concentrate more on attack. It is
Gerrard’s vision going forward that gives England its flair in attack. Of
course, David Beckham, the captain, is still here. He still is this side’s
most inventive and inspirational creator on the right, his free kicks are still
deadly and he still possesses the ability to make pinpoint crosses. Joe Cole has
been playing in the Beckham mode for about a year now, and his runs into the box
create all kinds of havoc for opposing defenses. Owen Hargreaves, Michael
Carrick and Shaun Wright-Phillips are the options off the bench.
Without
Rooney and with Owen’s availability a question, finishing prospects up front
are rather thin; this promises to be the biggest weakness going into the
tournament for England. Peter Crouch is a big target for service but young and
inexperienced, Jermaine Defoe is wildly inconsistent and off-the-mark, Darren
Bent is long on skill but isn’t a reliable finisher, and Darius Vassell is
strong and has pace but doesn’t find the back of the net, either.
Wright-Phillips may be pressed into duty as a striker but he doesn’t have much
of a scoring touch and is more of a flanker.
Quite
frankly, Group B would have been tough enough even if Rooney, Owen and Cole had
been healthy. As it is, they are evenly matched with Paraguay and Sweden will
find the form to beat them like they always do. England will go down to the last
minute probably making it through to the next round on points and/or goal
differential. But British fans shouldn’t get too excited, because likely lying
in wait will be Germany, with Holland or Mexico probably waiting past that. Too
many problems and too many questions just don’t add up for a long tournament
run for a side that is this jinxed.
Key Player: Frank Lampard.
Well, actually Lampard and John Terry, the two players with bad dispositions and
an iron will. These are just the kind of players that have been missing from
this team since Gary Linaker played for them in the Eighties. And both are now
more important than ever thanks to injuries to their forward players. I’m just
not seeing England establishing any real consistent scoring up front. So Terry
is going to have to be immovable in the back and Lampard is going to have to be
influential in the middle. It looks like Lampard and Steven Gerrard are going to
have to carry most of the scoring load if England is going to stick around for
any length of time.
Since
finishing second at USA ’94, Italy
has been anything but the elite team they think they are. With the exception of
an extraordinary performance that saw them finish second only in extra time, the
Azzurri has failed to impress in every other international competition. Sure
they made it to the knockout stage in each of the last two World Cups, but in
both cases they got away from the energetically frenetic attacking style that
had historically served them well and instead employed this slow, conservative,
build from the back minimalism that was boring and exasperating. The side that
had for decades prided itself on being well-conditioned and running their
opponents into the ground were themselves being run off the pitch. They would go
up by one goal and then bring on a defender and drop back into their own end,
looking strictly to just survive. Or if they didn’t get the one-goal advantage
then they’d just play this numbing ball-control offense without really trying
to score, just hoping to get a result. It’s as if they didn’t play to win
but rather played not to lose.
Needless
to say, for a team and a country with expectations of winning a championship, it
didn’t work. Lesser skilled and innovative teams eliminated them from both
World Cups, and they were embarrassingly drop-kicked from Euro 2004 at the group
stage.
MY
OWN PERSONAL NOTE HERE: Italy should
have never let Dino Zoff go. He was the best coach they’ve had in ten years…
There, I said it…
But
maybe their shameful exit from Euro 2004 was a blessing in disguise. Their
current coach, Marcello Lippi, is beginning to get the side out of its doldrums
and playing the kind of fast, quick attacking style the Azzurri were known for
prior to this recent ten-year run. The tough, tactically innovative and flexible
coach is finally getting the kind of well-conditioned players who swarm around
the ball when not in possession and quickly get the ball into the offensive zone
and counterattack when in possession.
Lippi
is clearly hoping that this incarnation of the national squad has more unity of
purpose and mental toughness than in recent years. A world-class coach who has
won championships everywhere he has coached in Serie A, the strategically
intelligent Lippi has used a rather free-flowing 4-3-1-2 formation throughout
most of qualifying but has experimented with a classic 4-4-2 in recent
friendlies. Unlike most of his recent predecessors, Lippi not only has a very
set lineup, but he does a good job of deflecting criticism from the Italian
media and government (i.e.: Silvio Berlusconi, the recently-ousted prime
minister who made it a point to publicly criticize the Azzurri) about who should
and should not be on his roster. As the American adage goes: “Once you finally
get invited to the ball, ya dance with who brung ya.” Lippi is going to stick
with the players that got him through qualifying.
Luca
Toni and Alberto Gilardino are not your classic stars in the mold of past
Italian strikers, but they get the job done up front. Toni got a late start for
the national side, having toiled in the lower leagues for most of his career
before getting his chance in Serie A in his late twenties. At every level he has
scored in bunches, and when he was finally given a chance at the international
level he didn’t stop. On an AC Milan side that is crowded with international
stars in attack Gilardino has stood out and impressed. These two scored the
lion’s share of goals for Italy in qualifying, and however unlikely this
pairing is they deserve their starting nod. What could muddy the water, however,
is who will be hoisted upon Lippi as backups. Whatever great finishing Christian
Vieri has done for them in the past is of little consequence now; he hasn’t
been in-form in over a year. Filippo Inzaghi is probably the best scorer in the
box in the world but hasn’t been on this team in close to four years. And why
Alessandro del Piero would rate a place when he hasn’t done anything for
anybody anywhere since even before Korea/Japan is beyond me. Same for Vincenzo
Iaquinta, who hasn’t finished any of his chances, and Antonio Cassano, who is
riding the pine at Real Madrid and is consistently unreliable for country.
Slotted
just behind the strikers in the hole is Francesco Totti, one of the best
creative wizards in Europe with a nose for goal. He has a quick mind and
exceptional vision, can create on the fly, is good with the ball at his feet and
is one of the best one-touch inventors there is. When they are on their game
there is probably no team that spends less time in the center of the field than
Italy. That is not because they have a weak midfield -- far from it. It is
because Mauro Camoranesi, Gennaro Gattuso, and especially Andrea Pirlo
transition from defense to the offense so quickly. This has the added benefit of
stretching the opposition so thin that Totti has the time and space to create so
many offensive chances just behind his forwards in the penalty area. Gattuso is
the hard bull just in front of the defense who literally welcomes taking people
on. Camoranesi is the highly-skilled all-rounder who does everything in
midfield. But the core of the engine room is Pirlo, the main distributor in the
middle. He has quickly become one of the best midfielders in Europe by adding
heart to the midfield and creative bite going forward. Simone Barone and Manuel
Blasi and jacks-of-all-trades in reserve.
Arguably
the most crushing backline in the tournament may belong to Italy. So few
national sides are blessed with one world-class defender; Italy has two, Fabio
Cannavaro and Alessandro Nesta, who plug up the opposition attack with impunity.
Gianluca Zambrotta has been a pleasant surprise on the right, yet his
versatility, much-improved tackling, marking and ball-winning, and improved
ability to get forward have made him an indispensable cog, especially as a
player who can dig his side out of trouble when the things aren’t going right.
Fabio Grosso is another one of Italy’s late bloomers who is steady and gets
the job done on the left. Italy would be better served with Gianluigi Buffon in
the net – he’s younger, reflexively quicker and much more in sync with his
defense – than Angelo Peruzzi or Morgan de Sanctis, both of whom are more old
than experienced.
Italy
doesn’t have the world’s easiest Group E draw, and if they revert to the
form that has plagued them for the previous ten years then the Czech Republic,
Ghana and the United States will run at them all day, and this perceived elite
football power will crash out against upstarts with something to prove. But
maybe a tough group draw is just what the doctor order; maybe this kind of
competition from the outset is just what they need to jumpstart what should be a
well-conditioned, energetic and frenetic attack. This tournament is being
contested in Europe, so because they usually don’t embarrass themselves on the
continent in this tournament, I can’t see them not making it to the Round of
16. But enthusiasm for advancing, however, should be tempered by the likelihood
that Croatia or Brazil will probably be waiting for them in the next round, with
France likely beyond that. A run deep into the tournament is not going to be
easy.
Key Player: Andrea Pirlo.
We will know almost immediately whether this is the quick attacking team of past
glory days or the plodding, lethargic team, that is too afraid to make a
mistake, of their more recent past. We know that the creative responsibility is
going to fall on Francesco Totti to service the strikers, and Alberto Gilardino
and Luca Toni are going to have to keep doing what they’ve been doing, take
advantage of Totti’s service and finish their chances. But if they play like
we know they should, Italy will be looking to transition quickly from offense to
defense, not wasting time keeping the ball in midfield. To that end, the link-up
between the backline and the attack is vitally important, and the onus for that
is going to fall on Pirlo.
You had
better believe that heads rolled five years ago when The Netherlands,
one of the world’s most elite football powers despite never winning a world
championship, failed to qualify for Korea/Japan. With extreme prejudice the
Dutch football association not only cleaned their own house (Louis van Gaal),
they cleared out a lot of the veteran stars, many of whom were world-class
talent (Patrick Kluivert, Edgar Davids, Michael Reiziger, Clarence Seedorf,
Dennis Bergkamp, Franck and Ronald DeBoer, Boudewijn Zenden, Jimmy Floyd
Hasselbaink, Jaap Stam) who thought of their place on the national side as their
birthright. It was a bloodbath – and so few survived what could best be
metaphorically characterized as a purge.
In
the aftermath, Dick Advocaat was assigned the primary task of getting the side
much, much younger and scouring the countryside for an infusion of new blood.
After Euro 2004 Marco van Basten, one of the 20 or so greatest footballers ever
with absolutely no prior coaching experience anywhere, was charged with
continuing Advocaat’s mission while at the same time getting the side to
return to playing the attractive, attacking, “Total Football” that had
characterized previous generations of Dutch football.
While
the side has yet to attain “Total Football”, the results have certainly been
better. In arguably the toughest qualifying group that included the Czech
Republic, Romania and Finland, Holland won going away, scoring 27 goals in 10
matches while giving up only three in not losing a single game. Plus, they were
as consistent as you can possibly get, winning 5 and drawing 1 at both home and
on the road (their scoring ratio was 13-1 at home and 14-2 on the road). You
can’t get any more reliable than that…
…So
this should be preparation enough for this tournament’s “Group of Death”,
the Group C draw with Argentina, the Ivory Coast and Serbia & Montenegro.
The
4-3-3 formation van Basten utilizes lends itself well to the attractive,
attacking football he wishes to attain, but there are problems. In order for it
to work as beautifully as is should, you have to have up-front flankers who can
wreak havoc on the opposition defense. And outside of pacy, inspirational Arjen
Robben on the left, Holland doesn’t have any. Basten will often use
out-and-out strikers Dirk Kuijt and Robin van Persie on the right because he
doesn’t have a genuine counterpart to Robben on that side.
What’s
more, Ruud van Nistelrooy is the only goal poacher they have. One of the three
or four best goal scorers in the world over the last seven years, van Nistelrooy
doesn’t need but a sliver of space to create his own shot. He can break down
any two defenders in the box on his own, is literally eye-popping with the ball
on his feet, and is a master at one-touch shooting. Roy Makaay has scored more
goals than anybody in Europe over the past four years at the club level but has
all but disappeared for the national side and might not even make the team. This
leaves van Basten with no choice but to choose between Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Ryan
Babel and Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink (yes, that’s his full name) as reserves.
Holland
is not getting the kind of attacking service they would like to get from their
midfield because they have spent more time having to attend to their defensive
duties. Newcomers Denny Landzaat, Hedwiges Maduro, Wesley Sneijder and lone
holdover Phillip Cocu are respectable enough but seem to lack the visionary mojo
required to concentrate on distributing the attack and keeping possession. If
there is going to be some inspiration from the midfield, it is going to have to
come from Rafael van der Vaart and Mark van Bommel, who are having spectacular
season for their respective clubs. Hybrid center-half Nigel de Jong and
holdovers George Boateng and pit bull Edgar Davids are useful in reserve.
The
center of defense is very inexperienced and unsettled, so much so that it is up
in the air who van Basten will utilize from one fixture to the next. They defend
well enough but lack the ability to build moves from the back, which is anathema
to the “Total Football” concept. Khalid Boulahrouz, Jan Kromkamp and lone
holdover Giovanni van Bronckhorst seem to be whom they will settle on. Outside
of maybe Tim de Cler and John Heitinga it is anybody’s guess who else will
make the team. Throughout this teams early purges there was no doubt that
goalkeeper Edwin van der Saar would still be around. He is one of the five best
goalkeepers in the world right now; He keeps his cool, makes outstanding saves,
and seems to get better every year even at 35.
Interestingly
enough, the Netherlands were the only side in Group B that was enthusiastic
about this hard of a draw. In the face of opening fixtures this rigid van Basten
and company showed their imperturbability and resolve. If Holland has any
designs on winning the cup, then they are going to have arguably the most
difficult route to it.
Key Player: Ruud van
Nistelrooy. Who else? Van Basten
can’t find anybody in Holland who can finish as well as van Nistelrooy. Either
he does the scoring or nobody will.
For the
five years immediately following their last appearance in a World Cup, at France
’98, Serbia & Montenegro were
in terminal decline. Despite making it to the Round of 16 in France the national
side were exposed as old and slow and lacking in any attacking skill. Then the
team that had made an impact on international football for almost ten years
prior found itself floundering and not even a shell of its former incarnation.
They were in perpetual chaos with no real direction, and they were stunningly
impotent on the international scene, presenting no challenge to anybody and more
often than not losing to minnows they had no business losing to.
After unsuccessfully trying a number of former star players at coach, all of whom failed miserably, the national side took a chance on another former national star, Ilija Petkovic – and their fortunes changed. Since taking over the team after a wretched Euro 2004 qualification campaign, the clever and witty Petkovic resurrected the team by instilling a sense of discipline and organization. In previous times, the former Yugoslavia had great, world-class individual talent. There isn’t nearly the talent on the ground that there has been in the past but there is some to draw from. Nonetheless, teamwork is what it’s all about now. Gone are the days when the generation of Savicevic, Stojkovic, Mijatovic, Mihajlovic and Jugovic could be counted on to put the team on their shoulders and carry them. This is more of a team now, and they function very well as a unit.
They have clearly found their form. In a qualifying group that included Spain and Belgium, Serbia & Montenegro, against all odd, were the undefeated group winners. They didn’t score but 16 goals in 10 qualifying matches, but they only allowed just one goal in a Herculean defensive effort, by far the most suffocating defense in World Cup qualification (Spain score the loan goal, but only managed a point both times they played).
Needless to say, Serbia & Montenegro play to their strength: Suffocating defense. Like I’ve always said, the further east in Europe you go the better the defenders get. Not unlike their Croatian counterparts the immovable backline of Goran Gavrancic, Nemanja Vidic, Mladen Krstajic and Ivica Dragutinovic will stand their ground, fight for every inch of turf and for every ball that comes into the box, and take on anybody. Especially Vidic, the crushing center-back and the heart of the defense, offering great power and anticipation and a very good reading of the game. In Petkovic’s simple and cautious game plan using a rigid 4-4-2 formation, this backline is critical. Dragoslav Jevric is quickly rising up the ranks of international goalkeepers even though he is only 22, and he is integral in organizing the defense in front of him.
What is of special concern is the midfield. One creative playmaker, Predrag Djordjevic, is 34 and showing a possible decline in pace and power; he is wearing his age and stamina could be a big concern in June. The other, Dejan Stankovic, has showed much better form for Inter-Milan than for the national side. Petkovic could look the Sasa Ilic, who has been a rare talent for them in attack. Albert Nadj has been the rock in front of the defense and a more than capable contributor going forward. Zvonimir Vukic and Dragen Mladenovic aren’t the best possessors in midfield, but you could do worse.
What has to have Serbia & Montenegro jazzed is that striker Mateja Kezman has finally found his scoring touch after two years in the abyss. A former European scoring champion, an in-form Kezman is as deadly as they come in front of goal. Savo Milosevic has been a fixture on this team since the early Nineties, and even at 33 he still is the go-to guy up front. After these two it gets very thin, so the scoring onus definitely falls on these two.
Despite finding themselves in the Group of Death with Argentina, Holland and the Ivory Coast, Serbia & Montenegro like their chances of advancing to the next round. With this defense I would be confident, too. Not only does the defense work in their favor but minimum expectations; just getting here after the chaos they were in for the longest time is viewed as a success in itself. There is a confident swagger about this squad, so the other teams in this group had better be prepared.
Key Player:
Mateja Kezman. This defense is going to do its job, but if this
side wants to get to the next round they are going to have to show a little more
finishing up front than they have. Kezman and Milosevic have to raise their
scoring to another level.
Now comes the hard part for South
Korea: Convincing everyone that their fourth-place finish in 2002 was
no fluke. Definitely a tall order for a squad that has never won a single World
Cup match, in five previous appearances, that wasn’t contested on home soil.
South Korea came into the 2002 tournament with what was possibly the best-prepared team of the competition. Then coach Guus Hiddink was able to secure the use of all the players on his roster three months in advance the tournament. That is, every last one of his players were let go from their respective club commitments and allowed to train together and become a cohesive, well-disciplined, fundamentally sound unit three months in advance. At most, because of club commitments and extended playoff commitments going deep into May, virtually all of the other nations weren’t able to get their full squads together until two weeks prior. This meant that, while Hiddink was continually training, playing numerous friendlies and putting together a team for months, the rest of the competition had only a couple of weeks to get players familiar with each other, each other’s styles and idiosyncrasies, and the strategies and schemes they would have to employ in short order.
Not once did South Korea ever display any true offensive flair, relying mostly on somebody to bring the ball up field and then crossing it into the box looking for a player to run onto it and shoot. While creatively uninspiring and somewhat mundane to watch, South Korea’s strategy was simple: Stay disciplined and organized on defense and don’t make any mistakes in the middle, and as the game wears on relentlessly run the opposition to exhaustion and take advantage of the mistakes an exhausted opponent would make late. They weren’t going to win with attractive, attacking methods they couldn’t execute, but with strength, speed, stamina, and workrate.
With 2002 in their rear view mirror, things have not gone to plan since. Two more Dutch coaches led the side to mundane results, they shockingly finished dead last in the East Asian Championship – a competition they had gotten used to dominating – and they finished second in their qualifying group with rather ordinary results (they score 9 goals in 6 qualifying matches, losing twice to Saudi Arabia).
So having qualified and with less than nine months to go to Germany, the Koreans made a change and brought in their third Dutchman in as many years, ex-Rangers and Holland coach Dick Advocaat. Advocaat is no stranger to the World Cup and certainly has plenty of big tournament experience, having led Holland to the quarterfinals of USA ’94 and the semis of Euro 2004. The change seems to have worked and the players appear to have re-found some of the self-belief they showed four years ago. The proof is in the results, having defeated
Finland, Croatia and Mexico in friendlies.
All previous Dutch coaches employed a strict 4-4-2 formation, but Advocaat has switched to a 4-3-3, reasoning that this side, now with some positive international experience, is ready to try a more attractive, attacking scheme. Of course, it helps if you have Park Ji-sung on your side, the left-sided forward for Manchester United and the highest profile Asian player in Europe. He has energy to burn, and he has shown an attacking flair for the Red Devils unheard of in his native land. This team was clearly at its best when Park was on the pitch. Lee Chun-soo is Park’s counterpart on the right. There is probably not going to be a pair of flankers in this tournament that are faster. Lee Dong-gook has found his scoring touch in front of the two forward wingers, and he will be counted on for a lion’s share of the scoring, with Chung Kyung-ho able to play anywhere up front in reserve. Seol Ki-hyeon, the instant offense four years ago, is still making his presence felt.
Organization, stamina and discipline are still keys for the Korean backline. Kim Sang-shik, Choi Jin-cheul and Kim Dong-jin are still at the heard of this defense, with the Tottenham center-back Lee the main man. None of these three are very good in the air and they are not the best of man-markers, but together they are good at collapse into the center and they maintain their defensive responsibilities. The best defender they have is winger Lee Young-pyo, who had a coming out in 2002 and now plies his trade in England, where he has clearly picked up bruising European tactics. In goal, Lee Woon-Jae was a revelation four years ago; his brilliant reflexes make up for his lack of height, and he never has any lapses of concentration.
It is the midfield that lacks creativity, relying mostly on pace and quickness to break down a defense. Kim Nam-il is at the center of the midfield. A defensive midfielder, he is known as “The Vacuum Cleaner” for his prowess at “hoovering up” problems. What makes this all the more interesting is that he doesn’t spend a whole lot of time in front of the defense, so he plays a major role dictating pace. Advocaat is bound to use Lee Eul-yong or Kim Do-hein in support of Kim when he want to maintain a more ball control scheme, but he prefers to mostly to use forwards to support the attack, most notably Ahn Jung-hwan and Chung Kyung-ho.
Matching the heights of 2002 is almost certainly an unattainable goal, but reaching the knockout phase may be a distinct possibility. In their Group G draw France is the clear favorite, but the Koreans like their chances against both Switzerland and Togo. However, to get there, South Korea is going to have to do something it hasn’t done yet – win a World Cup fixture on foreign soil.
Key Player: Park Ji-sung.
The Koreans are expected to maintain the tactical disciplined they displayed
four years ago. What they will need to do is finally find some attacking going
forward that they have not been able to achieve in prior World Cups. Now is the
time for them to take advantage of the form Park has attained playing for
Manchester United. With his energy and pace, Park is going to be all over the
pitch in the thick of it.
The former Soviet Union was notorious for
using Ukrainian players, who were considered more skillful. They usually made up
a large part of USSR teams that competed in major international tournaments. So
it seems rather odd that, since the breakup of the USSR 15 years ago, the Ukraine
has only now made it to a major finals. They certainly have more quality than
their former masters, yet Russia has been to three World Cups in the intervening
years.
They certainly are making up for lost time. Nobody would have thought that, in a qualifying group that had Korea/Japan third-place finisher Turkey, Denmark, and Euro 2004 champions Greece, the Ukraine not only would qualify but would win their group outright. Especially when you consider that they started their qualification campaign having not won any fixtures in close to a year.
Much of the credit goes to Oleg Blokhin, the upbeat 53-year-old member of the Ukrainian parliament who created a team with strong fighting spirit and self-confidence – two virtues he displayed as a player with Dynamo Kyiv. He advocates a simple, effective approach to football, as evidenced by the basic 4-4-2 formation he employs; no frills, keep it simple, maintain your area of responsibility, and always stay disciplined. Blokhin’s lineup is set, as well as his roster; he doesn’t shuttle players in and out of the lineup wondering from moment to moment what their role is. Everyone on the team is well informed about what is expected of them.
To that end, here is the likely lineup…
Sergei Federov (no, not that Sergei Federov) is the stopper, Andrei Rusol is the sweeper, and both are the man-markers in the center of defense. Andrei Nesmachnyi is the left back, with Volodymyr Yezerskyi on the right (Remember what I said about defenses the further east in Europe you go?). There are two holding midfielders; the very aggressive Anatoli Tymoshchuk, who is effective both in defense and attack mode, and Andrei Husin, who lacks pace and is the weakest point of the whole construction. Tireless Oleg Huseiv, who has good vision and excellent ball control, is on the right of midfield, with Andrei Vorobei plays on the left as more of a scrapper. When the team needs more offense, the Ruslan Rotan replaces Vorobei as a more attacking variant. Andrei Voronin is the powerful, dynamic playmaker whose preferred slot is just behind the main striker, who just happens to be none other the Andrei Shevchenko, the undisputed team leader, former European Footballer of the Year, and unquestioned goal-poacher.
Have no illusions, Shevchenko is “The Man”. He is one of the four best strikers in the world, bar none. If everybody else on this team does their job, then Shevchenko scores his goals. It’s that simple.
As good as this team is there are some injury worries. First-choice keeper Olexander Shovkovskyi broke his collarbone in January and his availability in June is uncertain. Federov and another center-back, Vladislav Vaschuk, has persistent knee problems. And Tymoshchuk has a damaged Achilles tendon. On the plus side, however, is that rustiness and form should not be a problem as virtually everybody on the squad are first-choices with their respective clubs.
The Ukraine is very upbeat about their prospects in Germany. Considering this is their first time in the World Cup they managed to avoid some unwanted opponents such as Germany, France or Brazil and were drawn into a relatively easy Group H – along with getting enigmatic Spain they also get minnows Tunisia and Saudi Arabia. They go into this tournament knowing that they have already exceeded expectations, but they go in with the attitude that one way or the other they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. So clearly they aren’t worried.
Key Player: Andrei
Shevchenko. Who else?