Welcome To Bracketville 2004! by David Kennedy

Home of the NCAA Tournament! The selections have been made, the teams chosen, the seeding done. Now its time for you to fill out your brackets and let the Madness take over. Saint Joe's gets a number one seed! Duke loses 4 of their last eight! Oklahoma State plays too late to get a #1 seed! Gonzaga finally gets a high seed! Pittsburgh gets hosed with a tough draw! So does Stanford, who will have to walk through fire to make it to San Antonio! Wisconsin gets to stay at home! And what about the Racers, the Jaspers, the Salukis, the Rattlers, the Crusaders, the Flyers, the Catamounts and the Roadrunners, all from mid-majors?

What follows is my take on the brackets. You can take it at face value or you can take it with a grain of salt. Either way, I love doing it. So I hope you find it informative in filling out your office pool brackets (it's not like they don't know you're doing it...)

It is this time of year that field goal percentages go way down, so the teams that have relied on offense will see their scoring drop precipitously. With that in mind, it is usually the teams that can play suffocating defense, play in the paint, rebound (with a premium on the offensive variety) and most importantly sink their free throws, that do well in the tournament.

East Rutherford Region (East)

- Pittsburgh got fucked! Despite playing to the last second against UCONN in the Big East Tourney final and winning the regular season conference title, the got only a #3 seeding. They likely get Wisconsin in the second round in Milwaukee, and then if they get passed them get #2 Oklahoma State in the regional semis (no guarantee they get there, Wisconsin is playing well right now. You can actually make a case for Pitt having it easy in the regional final if they get that far, which I'm not betting on because there are too many potholes along the way. They'll beat Central Florida in their opener but beyond that I wouldn't bet the fort on.

- To a degree Oklahoma State wasn't treated kindly by the selection committee either. The only reason they didn't get a #1 seed is because they played their conference tourney final too late on Sunday to be considered for it. Sure, they'll wax Eastern Washington easily, and should have no problem getting by the Memphis-South Carolina winner, but after that it gets exponentially more difficult with Pitt possibly waiting for them. Still, this is an Eddie Sutton team, they can run and are high-percentage shooters who don't waste their shots.

- Best Opening Game of the Bracket: Memphis-South Carolina. The Gamecocks can press and were eighth in the nation in scoring defense. Memphis has been on a slide of late, losing three of their last four. But Memphis is a John Calipari-led team, so their athleticism can carry them to the regional final. Will that happen? Probably not. Gotta go with the team that plays the best defense, and that's South Carolina.

- UPSET SPECIAL #1: Manhattan over Florida. Sure, Billy Donovon has a team with some size so there is a clear inside presense and at this time of year that is really important. But this Florida team can really make some poor decisions offensively, their run to the SEC title game appearance notwithstanding. In that final game they beat themselves vs. Kentucky. We are all about to find out how much of a lights out shooter Luis Flores of Manhattan is. I'm not big on shooting in the dance, but even a mid-major gets lucky in an opening game, and if I had to choose one in this tournament, it would be this one.

- Wake Forest can rebound and they are extremely deep -- you can't be successful in the ACC and not be. They put a premium on high-octane, transition offense and they take care of the ball well, rarely turning it over, and most importantly, when they get to the charity stripe they don't miss (another tournament must). They were given somewhat of a gift draw, and should have no problem making it to the regional final, because...

...As historic a season as St. Joe's had and will MADD props to Jameer Nelson and Phil Martelli, I'm just not sold on the Hawks. I think a #1 seed was just too high for a team that was blown out of its opening round tourney game by a Xavier team who just won't go far. The only reason they got the top seed is because Oklahoma State played too late for the selection committee. I love Nelson and Delonte West as much as the next guy, but this is a small team that relies almost entirely on their quickness and guards, and as we have seen you can't rely on outside shooting alone to take you through these six games. Quite frankly, I don't even think they get past the second round, where Texas Tech -- and Bobby Knight, who we all know knows how to come up with a game plan to beat any top-shelf team -- ends the illusion. And even if by some freak of nature they get past Tech, in all likelihood Wake Forest and their inside aircraft carriers will pick them apart.

Atlanta Region (South)

- I don't know about you but I'm kind of questioning whether or not Duke deserves the annual give draws they always seem to get. It's like the selection committee is annually mapping out this road for the Blue Devils to the Final Four. Then when they don't get there it is an upset. I mean, really, is there anybody in this region who can beat Duke?

- Seton Hall have no depth, no real go-to guy, are not big and don't get many second-chance shots. Which begs the question: Why are they seeded eighth? Everybody thinks their opening game against Arizona will be a good one, which may be true if Arizona plays below their abilities like they have all season long. Play like their talent indicates and the Arizona might even give Duke trouble in the second round -- but don't count on it.

- I was going to make Murray State my upset special against Illinois. Then two of their starters got arrested for drugs possession on Monday. So forget it...

- Anybody who knows me knows that year in and year out I am never sold on either Xavier or Cincinnati. Both teams are always extraordinarily talented, both teams always have great records, both teams are always highly seeded, both teams play an inside game with big bodies who hit the boards -- and both teams always die on the vine in the early rounds. Once again Cincinnati gets a high seed they don't deserve; they should beat E. Tennessee State but will wilt against Illinois in the second round. I would be more inclined to choose Louisville over Xavier any other time except Louisville is heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time (having lost 8 of their last twelve), is not healthy and as a result have no depth to fall back on. That said, Xavier will do what they normally do and wilt against Mississippi State in the second round.

- North Carolina was given a gift in the first round -- I wonder how they rated that considering the Tar Heels really were not that spectacular this year. That said, it won't be easy for NC after the first round, where either Texas or Princeton will give them fits in the second round, and Mississippi State will give anybody fits in the regional semis.

- The One Team Nobody Ever Wants To Play In The First Round: Princeton. You know the drill: Smart defense, patient offense, backdoor cuts and unselfish passing by everybody, the Tigers run Pete Carrill's motion offense better than anybody in basketball -- pro, high school, college or otherwise. Unlike past years this version actually have a little size in the paint. If Texas is going to beat them they are going to have to outhustle them, using their depth to throw lots of bodies at them and play hard in the paint. If you have to bet on one game and somebody gives you Texas and the points, take it.

St. Louis Region (Midwest)

- Another gift draw for Kentucky, who should be playing in San Antonio on April 3. With the arguable exception of Mike Krzyzewski there is nobody better at navigating the early-round potholes than Tubby Smith. The Wildcats always have the talent and the coaching to get to the Final Four. Washington plays a pressing defense that is tenacious and quick even thought they lack size, so tjhe Huskies will get past a UAB team that is weak against defensive pressure, but after that Smith will have way too much talent for Washington to deal with.

- Providence plays intense defense, getting more steals and more blocks than their opponents, and that matters in The Dance. Pacific won't come anywhere close to having answers for the kind of defensive pressure the Friars will put on them -- and I don't think Kansas in the second round will, either. This is a season of transition for Bill Self at Kansas, so he doesn't have "his guys" yet to execute the way he wants to, and it will matter against Providence. I know CBS is hoping for Kansas to get to Kentucky in the regional semis -- I'm not counting on it.

- UPSET SPECIAL #2: Utah over Boston College. The Runnin' Utes have kept focus after the departure of Rick Majerus, and they have a surprisingly strong inside game, having gone 22-4 in games in which they outrebounded their opponents. Boston College did well in an up year for the Big East, but they are young and have only one player who has been to the Big Dance, and teams with big men in the middle -- like Utah -- cause them problems. If the one go-to guy they do have, Craig Smith, goes cold, the Eagles have nobody else to go to. Here's betting the Eagles go cold.

- Georgia Tech peaked early and late, and had some impressive quality wins down the stretch against UCONN, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Duke and North Carolina. And they did it with arguably the best defense in the nation, certainly in the ACC. Nobody in the first two rounds is any real threat to the Yellow Jackets. Utah's dream dies here.

- UPSET SPECIAL #3: Nevada over Michigan State. Ordinarily I would never bet against the Spartans in the first round, but this is not your typical Tom Izzo team. These Spartans don't defend and they don't rebound, which is anathema to anything Izzo has done in the past, and as I've said until I'm blue in the face, if you can't do either you don't do well at tourney time. Nevada is no big whoop in the paint but they are certainly better there than Michigan State. Plus the Wolfpack have a player in swingman Kirk Snyder who will present matchup problems for Izzo's bunch. I like Nevada in this one.

- FINALLY!!! A LITTLE RESPECT FOR GONZAGA!!! About time, because Mark Few has clearly built a power program up in the Pacific Northwest. Gonzaga's offense is annually among the most efficient; high FG%, high assists. They are incredibly adept at finding the open man for a high-percentage shot. And unlike past years actually have some size in the paint to go with lots of tournament experience. The Zags get an Valpo team that seems to always shoot lights-out in their first round matchups in the tourney, but the Zags have the guns to match that. The Zags should get through their subregional with minimal problems, but Georgia Tech looms in the semis, with Kentucky probably waiting in the finals. I really don't think the Zags will get past either, but they certainly are capable.

Phoenix Region (West)

- STANFORD GOT FUCKED!!! By far the team that spent the most weeks at the top of the polls this season will have the toughest route to the Final Four. There is the very real possibility that Stanford could have to go through Alabama, Syracuse or Maryland, and UCONN to make it to April 3. East Coast bias by the selection committee? YOU BET! Got to give madd respect to Mike Montgomery, who clearly does not get nearly the credit he deserves in a sea of big name Bay Area head coaches (Alou, Macha, Erickson, Turner, Musslemann) for the otherworldly coaching job he does from year to year given the academic constraints he has to deal with in Palo Alto (Stanford won't even accept any student, athletes included, unless they score a 1390 or higher on their SATs). That said, I'm just not feeling it from the Cardinal. They will just have to negotiate too many land mines to get to San Antonio. Montgomery gets more from the players he does get than anybody has any right to expect, but as good as they are, not even Josh Childress or Matt Lottich are the basketball monsters that Emeka Okefor and Ben Gordon are.

- With one exception, I really don't see any real upsets in this bracket, it pretty much should go straight down the line.

- Alabama is this year's Auburn. Remember Auburn from last year's tourney? After playing the toughest schedule in the country they got a controversial at-large bid after going 18-12, took lots of heat for their record -- and then made it all the way to the Sweet 16. Well, Alabama mirrors that same formula: Toughest schedule in the country, 17-12 record. Against a fast and athletic Southern Illinois team that lacks an inside game, Alabama's toughness should serve them well. And they will give Stanford all kinds of fits in the second round.

- It's hard to bet against Syracuse in their first round game with BYU, because the Orangemen always play better at tourney time than the regular season, and they always find a way to make it to the next two rounds. Still, this year they are succeptible to big teams in the middle, and BYU is certainly that. That said, BYU hasn't done well in first-round games since the 80s. An interesting matchup all around, so if you are betting on this game individually and somebody gives you the 'Cuse and the points, take it.

- For a team that relied on defense all season long, Maryland's offense chose the right time to wake up. They are also served by having played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Don't be fooled by their record; Maryland is primed to make it to the regional semis. Maryland plays such incredible defense that they hold their opponents FG shooting to 38%. That coupled with a much more athletic team than Stanford (save possibly Childress) and you have a recipe for a Maryland upset of the Cardinal.

- Critical Statistic: NC State was the best free throw shooting team in the country. At tourney time that really matters. This is an experienced squad who are good at passing, cutting and screening -- and they draw lots of fouls, which can kill you. Two things stand in the way of the Wolfpack making it to the regional finals, Vanderbilt in the second round (who have size and also are killers from the charity stripe), and UCONN in the regional semis, whose size and inside presense will neutralize the Wolfpack. The marquee matchup of the second round could be NC State-Vandy. Way too close to call.

- DePaul vs. Dayton is a great matchup. Way too close to call, and quite frankly it really doesn't matter because whoever wins will be served up like a pig with an apple in its mouth to UCONN.

- My pick to win it all since October has been UCONN. I'm sticking with that pick. A few potholes along the way here, but they are peaking at the right time. Emeka Okefor is just a fucking monster; the best player in the country and the overall #1 draft pick come June. Jim Calhoun's team is so good, they made it through a tough Big East Tournament without Okefor. They do everything well, including the things that matter at tourney time, except one: Free throw shooting. Use up your bench and foul them a lot and you may have a chance. With a #2 seed they don't have nearly the potholes as Stanford does at #1. I just don't see them being challenged until the Final Four. Even if Maryland doesn't upset Stanford, the Cardinal just doesn't have enough to beat the Huskies.

So there it is, guys. My humble take on this year's tournament from Bracketville. Enjoy the tournament, and why not start a tradition like mine? 

My buddies will be joining me for our 11th Annual Final Four BBQ - lip-smackin', finger-lickin' BBQ ribs, chicken, my super-secret homemade hot links slathered in my Top-Secret Eye's Only homemade BBQ sauce, baked beans, collard greens, potato salad, gumbo fully loaded with crab, shrimp, chicken and hot sausage, beer & soda - and the one golden rule...

NO WOMEN ALLOWED!!! Leave your wife, mother, daughter, grandmother, aunt, niece, guardian, secretary, girlfriend, mistress, concubine, parole officer, female co-worker -- WHATEVER -- at home. For those six hours you will be in a man-safe environment able to act the way God intended man to be - belching, cussing, gossiping about women, talking sports and being obsessed with physical abilities of others (both male & female...) 

...And remember, the question isn't "Is it Madness?" The question is "Is it Madness enough?!"

David Kennedy is the host of The Sport Authority, a weekly radio sports talk show previously broadcast in Sacramento, CA and soon to be returning to the world via internet broadcast. Though weaned on American football, he is a futbol convert and sees a lot of his beloved San Francisco 49ers in Manchester United, whom he has adopted as his soccer favorite.  

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