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Welcome To Bracketville 2007! by David Kennedy |
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Welcome To Bracketville 2007! by David Kennedy |
At this time of year, there are three things you have to do well in order to go far in The Dance: (1) you have to make your free throws; (2) you have to hit a high percentage of your treys, and (3) you absolutely, positively, unequivocally have to crash the boards.
Before we get into the bracket breakdown, let me start off by bitching about a few of things about this year’s selections. For starters, I’m going to toot my own horn here and remind you that with last year’s Bracketville e-mail I sent out that I predicted that Kansas and Ohio State would be my picks for this year’s Final Four. Well, both teams go into this year’s tourney ranked #1 and #2 in the final polls, and they both have #1 seeds in their respective regions. If you need proof that I said it I’ll be happy to send you the e-mail.
Secondly, and much more importantly, more than in past years the NCAA selection committee got a lot of this wrong. We all saw last year how much the mid-majors have narrowed the gap with the super-conferences, culminating with George Mason’s Cinderella run to the Final Four from the Colonial Athletic Association. It looks like this year the NCAA did all it could to make the super-conferences keep their stranglehold on the riches, sending out only 6 at-large bids to mid-majors as opposed to nine last year, a five-year low. Furthermore, bubble teams from the big conferences were gifted with kindly seeds. Not only do Arkansas, Arizona, Indiana, Stanford and Texas Tech not belong here, they certainly don’t deserve the nos. 12, 8, 7, 11, & 10 seeds respectively that they got. And certainly not at the expense of Drexel, Florida State, Syracuse, Missouri State and Air Force. I’m sorry but you make a mockery of the tournament when you give this kind of deference to teams in the super-conferences who clearly didn’t do anything to earn it.
Lastly, I can’t really complain about the #1 seeds given this season to Florida, Ohio State, Kansas and North Carolina. But I don’t think Florida should be the #1 overall seed. I realize the Gators are the defending champion and are given the benefit of the doubt, but if you were paying attention, nobody played better overall all season long and certainly lately better than the Buckeyes and Jayhawks, and they are both the top two ranked teams in the country and deservedly so. For my money, it should have been Ohio State but I’d have been OK with Kansas. I’m just sayin’…
Okay, enuf bitchin’. Let’s get to it.
- Not the easiest region for a #1 seed, which I’m guessing is why North Carolina was placed here. Young team that had to grow up very quickly, and they don’t mind playing pedal-to-the-metal. Tyler Hansbrough is the kind of inside player you want a tournament time, too. Relatively easy route to the Sweet 16 for the Tar Heels, but I get a sense that there is where they die on the vine, where I’m betting that Texas will be waiting.
- The selection committee got this #8 vs. #9 seeding right: Marquette-Michigan State looks like one helluva game. Hard to pick this one considering neither team is playing really well right now, both ending their seasons losing more than they won. Tom Izzo usually had the Spartans prepared at this time of year (witness the four Final Four appearances the last eight seasons). That said this is not the usual board-crashing team the Michigan State usually has. Take an uncharacteristic early exit for the Spartans.
- USC was embarrassed in the Pac-10 Tournament final by Oregon, which has a lot of people drooling over a #12 over #5 upset by Arkansas here. I’m not one of them. Arkansas did not play the world’s toughest schedule and a pathetic road record, so they got here on the strength of an unlikely run to the SEC Tournament Final. Tim Floyd has the Trojans playing defense and shooting lights out on the perimeter. USC is too quick and too athletic for the Razorbacks.
- Take my word for it: Texas is going to beat North Carolina in the Sweet 16. Everything you’ve heard about Kevin Durant is true; he is that kind of a game-changer. The Longhorns are a high-scoring team with Durant totally controlling the paint. New Mexico State and USC don’t stand a chance. They rely so heavily on inexperienced yet athletic youngsters, so an off-shooting night could spell an early exit, but they haven’t played that way lately. A young team but nobody is questioning their athleticism.
UPSET SPECIAL #1: George Washington has a ton of post-season savvy and play pressure defense. They have front-line muscle to burn and cause a lot of turnovers; things you want to have at tourney time. Vanderbilt is a smallish team that makes a lot of their shots but not from three-point range (nobody in the SEC did). Not a lot of big-time wins for GW this season, but they do the things you need to do to win tournament games. Vandy was given a # 6 seed, so here’s betting that this #11 seed takes care of business.
Washington State-Oral Roberts presents somewhat of a dilemma. The surprise team in the Pac-10, WSU works the clock and takes care of the ball, and as a result plays a lot of low-scoring games (they have to, this is not a very big team). Oral Roberts is the much more experienced post-season team but there is no one thing they do particularly well. This is as even a match-up as there is in this region despite the #3 vs. #14 seeding. Call this one a pick ‘em, because I just don’t know enough to call this an Upset Special.
Neither Boston College nor Texas Tech is playing well right now. Both teams are susceptible to long streaks of inconsistency. BC was playing well until one of their mainstays was dismissed from the team in January, then their inside game went all to hell the rest of the way. Texas Tech was fourth in the country in treys; they play a disciplined style and don’t turn the ball over often. But Tech doesn’t have an inside game to speak of. I don’t like the fact that Bobby Knight got a tournament bid for this average a team, but they were gifted an opening round draw against a team is all over the place right now. Not that if matter though, because of who will be waiting in the second round…
…And if you don’t think Georgetown is going to the Final Four, then you haven’t been paying attention. The Hoyas played like their glory days of the Eighties this year, winning an especially tough Big East outright and then running roughshod over everyone in their conference tournament. They aren’t very big but boy do they crash the boards and clog up the paint. They can play up-tempo or slow it down, it doesn’t matter. John Thompson III has this team hitting on all cylinders right now. The bottom half of the bracket is set up nicely for them, and I think they have the cohunes to take out either the Tar Heels or the Longhorns.
- Might as well start out this region by restating what I predicted last year: Ohio State is going to the Final Four. The top half of this region was practically gifted to them, and if they happen to face the #2 seed – Memphis, whom I’m never sold on – in the regional final then the Buckeyes could get to Atlanta without ever breaking a sweat. You think Texas’ Kevin Durant is good? OSU’s Greg Oden is the goods. He is so good that he practically sleepwalked his way through the season. The Buckeyes are strong, athletic, rule the paint and shoot well from the perimeter. I don’t think it will happen, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Oden vs. Durant in the Final Four.
- BYU-Xavier looks like a good #8 vs. #9 match-up on paper, but it really isn’t. Neither team had the kind of wins against quality opponents you’d like to see in a tournament team. Xavier actually is more of a bubble team; they don’t do anything especially well. They have four players they can count on but nothing else – a very weak bench. BYU shot 50% from the field, 40% from three-point range, are seven deep (all of whom can put points on the board), and aren’t afraid to pound the paint. But they did all of this in the Mountain West. Anybody who knows me knows I never like Xavier, so even against an average mid-major like BYU I still think they die on the vine.
- UPSET SPECIAL #2: Every year there is at least one #5 vs. #12 upset (last year there were two). I’m banking on this one being it. Tennessee has a penchant for rising to the occasion against prime-time talent but falling short against middling teams. They have a high-scoring offense, but they have an awful defense and they miss an obscene number of free throws. Long Beach State is just the kind of smallish, high-scoring, high-octane team the Vols needn’t see this early. LBSU is not the kind of team I would ordinarily pick in the opening round, especially when you consider they did not have a single quality win to their name. But if you can’t play D and you can’t sink your threes, then that is a recipe for disaster at tourney time. Take the 49ers here, which leads me to –
- UPSET SPECIAL #3: Virginia turns over the ball way too much, and against a motivated Albany, who led UCONN late in their opening round game last year, that could present problems. I still think the Cavaliers win, but the upset for me will be in the second round. Neither Virginia nor Albany match-up really well with a team like Long Beach State. All credit to Virginia for turning their program around in a short period of time, but I just have a feeling that the 49ers are way too quick and way to small for Virginia to match up with. Long Beach State gets to the Sweet 16.
- Louisville in a walk over Stanford, though I don’t really like either team. Stanford doesn’t do anything particularly well, they are getting less from their perimeter players than they have in the past, and got more from their front line players than they should have given how weak the Pac-10 was this year. Louisville is hot right now but lack any real go-to players, so they will rely on depth and balance. Stanford is a good team for Louisville to face in the opening round, but look for them to crash out in the second round.
- Texas A&M is a dangerous team for anybody to play. The best defense in the nation allowed the lowest opposition shooting percentage in the country. Plus they move the ball around well. They match up well with everybody in the lower bracket of this region. Penn and the Louisville-Stanford winner will not be much of a problem, and I even think they take care of business in the Sweet 16.
- I like Creighton in a close one over Nevada. The Missouri Valley Conference is quickly becoming one of the best mid-majors, and Creighton matches up well with a Nevada team that is hard to gauge given their relatively easy schedule (no bad losses but no marquee wins). Creighton is one of the best free-throw shooting teams and one of the better defensive teams in the tourney. They need to be because they don’t shoot particularly well. This game will hinge on Creighton’s ability to get to the charity stripe.
Memphis was given a gift draw in their sub-region. Conference-USA was relatively weak this year and Memphis didn’t exactly load up with out-of-conference opponents. Despite the longest Division-I winning streak in the country this year when the Tigers did play a Top 50 team they lost every time. I’m not impressed with John Calipari’s team at all. They are the least worst choice in their sub-region but will get brought back down to earth in the Sweet 16.
The defending national champions, Florida, were practically gifted a road map to the Final Four. They sure as hell didn’t need it: These guys know how to win in the postseason. They made quick work of everybody in the SEC Tournament. The Gators are monsters at three-point shooting, scoring defense, rebounding, and three-point defense. They will make quick work of everyone in their sub-region, and even if #4 Maryland and #2 Wisconsin get to the super-regional, neither have what it takes to beat the Gators. Put Florida in your Final Four right now.
- Purdue is here on the strength of two players, so if one of them has a bad game then it is over. This is not one of Arizona’s better entries into the Inca’s and quite frankly they really don’t belong here. That said Lute Olsen probably does enough to get into the next round.
- In the best battle of the mid-majors, #5 Butler gets #12 Old Dominion. Butler now has somewhat of a national pedigree, with the 6th-ranked defense in the nation; they sink their free throws, and hit a minimum of nine treys per game. Problem is they don’t crash the boards. ODU has probably the most depth of any team in the tourney, going ten deep. I like both these teams and it would be a shame for either to lose.
- Maryland has a balanced attack and shuts down the opposition three-pointers better than anybody, plus they share the ball well, which accounts for their almost 80 ppg average. Don’t count out Davidson, though, who are a monster at scoring and rebounding. Somebody in this game is not going to get to their 80 points; whoever that is will be the loser. Maryland probably wins this but Davidson will make it interesting down the stretch with their ability to make their free-throws at nut-crunching time. This and Butler-Old Dominion make for the most interesting sub-regional in the tournament.
UPSET SPECIAL #4: Winthrop is the best team you’ve never heard of. No real quality wins to speak of meant this team ran away from their Big South counterparts and hid. That said they made a big impression in their first-round loss last year and are even better this year. Notre Dame scores a lot of points and throws up a lot of treys but they are only average on defense. Winthrop’s full-court pressure defense disrupts ND’s backcourt and gets a date in the second round.
- Oregon will not impress anybody with their inside play but get tons of scoring from their perimeter players. Plus they will run all day. Miami (Ohio) plays decent defense but not well enough to even make an impact in their own conference (they just lucked out winning the Mid-America). Oregon runs past the overwhelmed and overmatched RedHawks.
- UNLV is back after a seven-year absence but this is not your father’s Runnin’ Rebels. They don’t shoot for a very high percentage and they act like rebounds is a disease. Plus they really didn’t have any quality wins this year. Georgia Tech is a decent shooting team with very quality wins in the ACC and a hellacious non-conference schedule. Hard to quantify this one, but I think their schedule probably did a better job of preparing the Yellow Jackets for the tournament than UNLV. Not that it really matters, though –
- Because waiting in the second round will be Wisconsin. The second-ranked team for most of the year, the Badgers are usually very well prepared for the NCAA's. You wouldn’t know who any of them were if I named them but they are probably the consistent team there is. There really isn’t anything they don’t do well. A gift sub-regional that will get them a date with Oregon in the Sweet 16, and a likely date with Florida in the regional final.
- Arguably the best team over the last month has been Kansas. Coming into this tournament with the longest current winning streak, this is an athletic team with an up-temp style that can hit the boards as well as anybody (an average of 8 more than their opponents). Their opponents shoot less than 37% from the field. There’s just no real challenge for them until the Elite 8.
- Kentucky has fallen on hard times. No wins against a ranked opponent this year, which is highly unusual for this program. Villanova isn’t much better but they do have seniors who’ve been here before. Villanova wins the don’t-care game of the day and gets their shoes fed to them by Kansas.
Virginia Tech was gifted a #5 seeding. They have one the more talented backcourts in the nation, and with veteran leadership are tough to beat, but their inconsistency can be angering and they haven’t been to the NCAA's in eleven years. Illinois has probably their weakest backcourt in years and they struggle offensively and they don’t have any quality wins to speak of, but they have among the stingiest defenses in the nation. Not really an elite match-up, but take the Hokies anyway.
- UPSET SPECIAL #5: Holy Cross plays big in the paint and that matters at tournament time. Plus they sink their free throws. Southern Illinois have the country’s fourth best defense. So everything about this game screams low-scoring, slow-down, defensive affair. I like the Salukis as much as the next guy, but something in the back of my mind says that the Crusaders, with their size advantage in the middle, finally get their first-ever tournament win and then proceeds to upend the Virginia Tech-Illinois winner. That’s right I’m saying it: Holy Cross is going to the Sweet 16.
- It is a down year for Duke, who had to rely on a stingy defense to make up for the fact that their inexperience was the root cause of their scoring deficiencies. Mike Krzyzewski never settled on a set starting lineup among his many underclassmen. Reputation got them a #6 seed and a date with Virginia Commonwealth, the 12th best three-point shooting team in the country (how ironic since it is Duke that usually lives by the trey). Problem is that VCU has little depth beyond its starting five, so they’ll get virtually nothing off the bench. Duke gets the win here…
- …But gets Pittsburgh in the second round. The Panthers did not shy away from playing tough non-conference games. As usual, the Panthers will bring power in the paint and a lot of experience against power programs. So Wright State doesn’t present much of a problem to Pitt. And quite frankly, neither does this incarnation of Duke in the second round. A relatively easy route to the Sweet 16 for Pitt.
- An unusually bumpy road to the NCAA’s for Gonzaga. Their main big man will be hard to replace in the paint, so a team with a big frontcourt could send them packing early. Indiana shouldn’t even be here, and they sure as hell don’t deserve a #5 seeding. The Hoosiers have balance but that is about it; they don’t do anything particularly well and nobody has stepped up to the plate to become the go-to guy. Take the Zags in this one, but they die on the vine in the second round.
- Is it me or does anyone else notice that the selection committee went out of its way to make it as easy as they possibly could for the top two seeds in each region to get to their respective regional finals? Case in point: UCLA. With the possible exception of Pittsburgh is there anybody in their bottom half of the draw that even comes close to them? Not a whole lot of size, but they take care of the ball and don’t make many mistakes. The Bruins make short work of their sub-region and find the backcourt play to handle Pittsburgh in the regional semi.
David Kennedy is the host of The Sport Authority, a weekly radio sports talk show previously broadcast in Sacramento, CA and soon to be returning to the world via internet broadcast. Though weaned on American football, he is a futbol convert and sees a lot of his beloved San Francisco 49ers in Manchester United, whom he has adopted as his soccer favorite.
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