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Welcome To Bracketville 2006! by David Kennedy |
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Welcome To Bracketville 2006! by David Kennedy |
WELCOME TO BRACKETVILLE!!! Home of the NCAA Tournament brackets. I’m sure
that you all are scouring the newspapers and the internet looking for that edge
in filling out your brackets – so one more source isn’t gonna hurt you. Here is
my take on this year’s Dance.
Before I get into it, let me remind you that at this time of year, there are
three things you have to do well in order to go far in The Dance: (1) you have
to make your free throws; (2) you have to hit a high percentage of your treys in
order to make taking them worthwhile, and (3) shooting percentages go way down
due to intense defenses, so you absolutely, positively, unequivocally have to
crash the boards.
Anyway, enuf preamble. Let’s get to it.
Atlanta Region
- I’m usually tired of seeing Duke get a #1 seed, but for lack of anybody
better, in this region it is very well deserved. JJ Reddick is the kind of
player you want at tourney time; hits at obscene number of treys, makes his free
throws, makes good decisions. A lot of folks think that this region is the
toughest for a #1 seed to make it through, but I beg to differ, and it will
become readily apparent why as we go along.
- Don’t be fooled by George Washington’s 26-2 record; they didn’t beat anybody
of note, easily won a weak A-10 conference but got bounced by Temple in the A-10
quarters. A good team on defense but they don’t really crash the boards. UNC-Wilmington
is balanced, deep and play suffocating defense, plus they are on a roll, having
won 14 of 15 in a conference that had four 20-game winners. UNC-Wilmington wins
a not-so-close game, but gets Duke in the second round.
- Upset Special #1: Don’t be fooled by Syracuse’s
recent run in the Big East tournament. Garry McNamara caught fire at a good time
but way too soon. Syracuse was not as good as their run indicates, lost to
everyone in the Top 10, and play inconsistent as hell. Texas A&M ain’t sexy, but
they close down the inside, play unbelievable defense, hold their opponents to
ungodly low scores, create an obscene number of turnovers, defend the perimeter
well, take away the break and are small but fast. They don’t really crash the
boards well and they can’t score a lot, but this is just the kind of team that
this incarnation of the Orange really don’t want to face right now. It’ll be
ugly as hell, but the Aggies win this one by a nose.
- In a down year for the SEC, LSU could be in a position to stay the longest. If
Tyrus Thomas is healthy, then he combined with Glen “Big Baby” Davis can crash
the boards with the best, and clog up the lanes against anybody lacking size.
Iona has size but is only average on the boards and at the line, but oh can they
score. It’ll be interesting to see Iona’s up-tempo offense against LSU’s
bruisers inside. By far the best game of this bracket; LSU either gets to the
Sweet 16 against Duke or dies on the vine here.
- West Virginia-Southern Illinois is going to be a better game than most people
think. The Salukis are not afraid of anybody, and are grinders who wear their
opponents down. Problem is they can’t shoot. They had better get ready to defend
the perimeter, because that is where the Mountaineers live. That said, West
Virginia has no inside game to speak of, don’t have any depth, and aren’t very
physical. West Virginia is no surprise to SIU, who win this one.
- Iowa is much better than many people think. Defense is what does it for Steve
Alford’s charges; they don’t allow teams to score because they hold their
opponents to an unbelievably low number of shots, they rebound well and they
block a lot of shots. Quite frankly, they were gifted an early draw;
Northwestern State won’t be any challenge, and neither will the UWV-SIU winner.
A relatively easy road to the Sweet 16 for a #3 seed.
- North Carolina State is a well-balanced, fundamentally sound team that plays
the motion offense well, but they aren’t playing well at all right now, and it
shows. Cal is playing very well right now, they don’t do anything really well
but they don’t turn over the ball, and that can be big. If Leon Powe stays home
and clogs up the low-post, NC State find their routes to the basket blocked –
and as a result continue to not play well. Take Cal in this one…
- …And not any further, because Cal will lose to Texas in the second round. The
Longhornes are the second best rebounding team in the nation, and at tourney
time that matters. Problem is, they have some really big lapses at the wrong
time. If Texas eliminates those stretches of inconsistent play they are as good
as anyone. Look for that to not matter the first two rounds, but it to rear it’s
ugly head in the Sweet 16 against Iowa.
- I’m not sold on Memphis. They certainly earned their #1 seed, but I don’t
think that this bracket is laid out for them so well. Conference USA wasn’t as
good as in past years, and John Calipari just filled the vacuum. Plus, I’ve
never been big on Calipari; coaches more with talent than with brains. The first
two rounds won’t be much of a problem for the Tigers, but waiting for them in
the Sweet 16 is either Kansas or Pittsburgh, two teams with tons of talent and
much better X’s & O’s coaches.
- Bucknell’s win against Kansas in last year’s tourney was no fluke, and
Arkansas is about to find that out. I like Stan Heath as their coach, but
outside of a streaky backcourt they are living on borrowed time. Against the
best defensive team in the country, time is going to run out.
- Kansas is peaking at the right time. They outrebound foes by more than 5 per
game and had the lowest defensive shooting percentage in the nation. A very
young team that I am picking for next year’s Final Four, but not there yet.
- Pittsburgh’s calling card has always been tough, physical play and a solid
defense, and they can give foes plenty of both. Plus they are deep. That they
played as well as they did in an especially tough Big East this years speaks
volumes. Unfortunately, they will run into a hot Kansas team in the next round.
(Just as an aside, the Kansas-Pittsburgh winner pops Memphis’s bubble in the
Sweet 16)
- Upset Special #2: How the hell did Indiana get a #6
seed? The Hoosiers are as close to a bubble team as there is (Air Force
notwithstanding), yet they get this high a seed. They do nothing well, and Mike
Davis is just doing it with mirrors with this little talent. Puh-LEEZE. San
Diego State, on the other hand, does everything well; shoots treys, hits the
boards, runs the floor, makes a high percentage of their shots, and did so in an
up-year for the Mountain West. Is there a rule that says even marginal teams
from power conferences are going to get good seedings in the NCAA’s? Indiana
doesn’t even make it interesting.
- I for one am tired of Gonzaga. After their initial Cinderella run in ’98, they
haven’t lived up to expectations, not even getting out of the second round
since. I respect Mark Few for making this one of the elite programs in the
country, especially for this conference (WCC), but until they get back to the
Elite 8 and win it, can we stop calling them serious national championship
contenders? Getting by Xavier (and if you’ve been to my BBQ for a number of
years, you all know what I think of Xavier) and San Diego State won’t be an
issue…
- …Getting by UCLA will. You heard it here first: UCLA IS GOING TO THE FINAL
FOUR. Ben Howland has the Bruins doing everything. An underrated and unknown
backcourt (Jordan Farmer, Aaron Afflalo) that can shoot lights out, this team
boasts probably the most balanced attack in the tourney. They score a lot of
points, attack the boards, and run the floor, and the last three weeks have
limited every opponent to 51 points or less per game. Belmont and Marquette
don’t stand a chance. Neither does Gonzaga.
- Nobody has more talent than Connecticut. Tons of experience, attractive
options everywhere, can crash the boards with the best, play outstanding
defense, block shots, and have an obscenely deep bench. Problem is that their
game lacks maturity; so enamored with their own talent that they frequently rely
solely on it to the exclusion of everything else. Jim Calhoun had better keep
this team focused, because the only thing keeping the Huskies from the Final
Four are themselves.
- Kentucky-UAB is not as good a match up as it looks on paper. Inconsistency,
immaturity, and eligibility problems plagued Kentucky all year. So who they can
rely on from game to game is a real issue. UAB is not the most talented team,
but they are clearly the most physically prepared; they will run on you for 40
minutes – and more if need be. If Tubby Smith can’t get it together by Thursday,
look for Alabama-Birmingham to run them out of the gym.
-Washington-Utah State isn’t as interesting a match up as it appears. A smart
and quick defensive team that can contest shots and defend the perimeter, like
Washington, can give Utah State fits. Not that it really matters: Illinois will
be waiting for either one. Kind of makes you wonder if the loser of this game
really is the loser.
- Air Force… Yeah, Right!!! Heaven help if we actually let a team the really
belongs here – like Missouri State – stand in the way of patriotism. And as if
that wasn’t bad enough, they get a #13 seed. God Bless America!!! (and
I mean that in the most sarcastic of ways)
- Wichita State-Seton Hall is too tough to call. In a year in which the Missouri
Valley Conference was as good as it was, playing more like a major conference
than a mid-major, the Shockers were the regular season champs. Losing to Bradley
in their conference tourney semis is not a good sign, though. Not a remarkable
team that does anything really well, but they sure as hell can’t shoot free
throws. Seton Hall isn’t a great shooting team but they can get hot from
three-point range, and are great at defending against the trey. Plus they are
exceptional from the charity stripe. I’m taking Seton Hall.
- As bewildering as Indiana getting a #6 seed is, it isn’t as mind-blowingly
baffling as Tennessee seeded #2. Wwwhyyyy?! What, Tennessee is a
basketball school now? OK, so this team can shoot, but what are they gonna do
when the fireworks go out and they have to defend, which they aren’t very good
at and are worse at rebounding. What, an early season victory over Texas, who
they happen to catch napping at the right time, is what did it. The selection
committee clearly blew the call on this one. Tennessee handles Winthrop in the
first round but in the second round Seton Hall proves to everyone why the Big
East has eight entrants in this tournament.
- Not that they didn’t deserve it, but North Carolina was gifted a relatively
easy draw at the bottom of this bracket. Roy Williams rebuilt this team quickly,
starting nothing but freshman and sophomores, playing well beyond their years.
Inside superiority, outside consistency, and rebounding are the cornerstones of
this team. If things fall right, the only roadblock on the way to the Elite 8
will be Michigan State, a perplexing team lacking their usual toughness, in the
second round.
- Ohio State is my second pick to make next year’s Final Four. That they got
a #2 seed says they got good early; nobody expected them to be Top Ten quality
until next season. The Buckeyes led the Big Ten in scoring and FG% defense. They
also led the conference in rebound margin, which doesn’t bode well for their
tournament chances. Still, they get to the Sweet 16 because they were gifted an
easy sub-region.
-Picking 10th-seeded Northern Iowa over 7th-seeded
Georgetown isn’t enough of an upset to consider it an Upset Special. A sticky
defense, one of the best clutch players in Ben Jacobson, the best rebounding in
the Missouri Valley Conference, and wins over Iowa and LSU make this an
attractive pick. That coupled with Georgetown's lack of postseason experience,
smallish team and lack of physical play make it that much more attractive. If
the Hoyas can slow things down and play the patient, motion offense they like,
they have a chance. Here’s saying they don’t. Either way, Ohio State kills
either team’s chances in the next round.
- Florida is truly an enigma. They started the season 17-0, then proceeded to go
10-6 the rest of the way; the SEC tournament saving them from a really
embarrassing end. The Gators love it up-tempo, but they make a lot of bad
decisions on the run, and that can be their undoing. South Alabama won’t be any
problem for them –
- — But waiting for them in the next round will be either Oklahoma or
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, one of the better games of the first round. UW-M will be
afraid of nobody; they start five seniors and tons of post-season experience.
Their Achilles Heel is they can’t shoot free throws to save their lives.
Oklahoma is the fourth best rebounding team in the nation. They don’t do much
really well but they are tough and gritty as hell and they can make some treys
when they have to. Oklahoma eeks this one out and takes Florida apart in the
next round.
- After brutalizing Duke in the ACC tournament final, Boston College is an
attractive pick for a lot of folks. They run their sets well and rely on getting
the big guys open inside for easy looks. They don’t rely on the trey much and
they don’t defend it that well, either. Pacific, on the other hand, led the Big
West in both, so they present a problem for BC in the first round. All the more
so when you consider Pacific is masterful at hitting their free throws. Not the
kind of opponent BC wanted in the first round, but their athleticism and
toughness will win this game and get them by Nevada in the next round, who can
shoot treys better than ever but rely heavily on their front line, which will
feed right into BC.
- Arizona matches up well with Wisconsin. The Badgers are not as prepared for
this year’s tourney as they have been in years past; they are awful shooters
from everywhere on the floor, including the free throw line. That said,
Wisconsin has a chance against the Wildcats, whose offense is predicated on
penetration as they average less than 4 treys per game.
- Villanova are as talented as they come. They don’t rely too much on size and
play small ball well. They are a good shooting team, spread the floor well with
their quickness, and are good from the three point arc. Problem is they don’t
match up well with big, physical teams. Fortunately for them they probably won’t
have to face one until the Sweet 16 provided Boston College gets there.
Upset Special #3: OKLAHOMA IS GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR.
No this is not a typo, and I’m not kidding. This bracket is set up so well for
the Sooners. There is nobody on their side of the bracket that can match up to
them physically or on the inside. They are patient on the offensive end, and
don’t give up space on the defensive end. They are the fourth best rebounding
team in the nation, and this while playing in an especially tough Big 12 this
year. Boston College represents the biggest challenge to them, and BC will fall
to Villanova in the Sweet 16. Villanova doesn’t match up well against Oklahoma’s
gritty toughness, especially on the inside. As glamorous a choice as Ohio State
is, they don’t have the moxie to match up against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. If I
haven’t got this one right, then come back to me in two weeks.
David Kennedy is the host of The Sport Authority, a weekly radio sports talk show previously broadcast in Sacramento, CA and soon to be returning to the world via internet broadcast. Though weaned on American football, he is a futbol convert and sees a lot of his beloved San Francisco 49ers in Manchester United, whom he has adopted as his soccer favorite.
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