Welcome to Bracketville!!!
Home of the 2003 NCAA Tournament
by David Kennedy

Before we get into it, a couple of observations:

- Texas Southern vs. UNC-Ashville in the play-in game. Who wins? WHO CARES!!! At 18-14 Texas Southern got in because of an automatic tournament bid, and at 14-16 UNC-Ashville doesn’t even belong in any postseason tournament. The “winner”, or more appropriately the “real loser”, gets to be Beecher to top-seeded Texas’s Schillinger.

- Dicky V. was only half right. Sure, Auburn doesn’t belong in this tournament with the sissified schedule they had (they couldn’t even beat the really bad teams from the mid-majors). But anybody out there trying to make a case for Boston College, Seton Hall, Tennessee or Texas Tech would be wrong – they don’t belong in either. I’m not enamored of Texas Southern, UNC-Ashville and Wagner any more than anybody else is, but I’d rather a bad team gets in because they won something than a bad team gets in because they play in a respected conference. It is for this reason that there is no playoff in college football.

Now that that’s out of the way, here is my take on the field of 65:

East Region

- As much as it pains me to say it, NC State is not a good match-up for Cal. The trio of Amit Tamir, Joe Shipp, and Brian Weathers are as good as any three in the country, but NC State has been motivated of late, and they have more tradition in The Dance. In any event, the winner has Oklahoma waiting for them in the next round. One way or another, it is an early exit for Cal.

- Butler deserved to be here. Even though they didn’t win their conference tournament, they had one of the best records in Div-I, and are a good example of the mid-majors finally getting a degree of respect. That said, they get Mississippi State in the first round, a team who plays monster defense and plays in trenches better than anybody, a combination that usually bodes well for any team in the postseason. This could be a classis first-round match-up.

- I’m not sold on Louisville. Rick Pitino did a great job in his second season there but he did it one year ahead of time. They lost big down the stretch and just didn’t deserve their high national ranking most of the season. Penn is just the kind of team that makes the Cards vulnerable from the start.

- Syracuse could be the surprise of the tournament. They play rough-and-tumble ball and have the best non-upper classman in the game in Carmelo Anthony. But they had better get it done now because Anthony is probably declaring for the NBA draft sometime in the next month or so. That said, Manhattan, the ‘Cuse’s first-round opponent, is good at slaying the Big East: they took out St. Johns and Seton Hall this year.

- St. Josephs will manhandle Auburn, who clearly doesn’t belong here. People don’t realize how good St. Joe’s is, and unfortunately people won’t find out anytime soon because Wake Forest is probably awaiting them in the next round. I’m not sold on Wake Forest. A #2 seed is just a little too high for them, and I think they go down in the Sweet 16 against a motivated Syracuse.

South Region

- Somebody up there likes Texas. Probably the weakest top-seed in the tournament gets the best draw in the dance. If the tournament goes to form then Texas will not have to go leave the time zone throughout the whole competition: Birmingham in the first two rounds, the San Antonio in the next, and of course New Orleans in the Final Four. I like TJ Ford as much as the next guy, but riding a guard to a championship is not going to get it done; they need to have touch post play. So the most important player for the ‘Horns will not be Ford but center James Thomas, who is going to have to hit the boards with reckless abandon.

- A lot of people think the Big East got the shaft in this year’s tournament. I’m one of those that don’t really think so. Aside from UCONN’s title run four year’s ago, the Big East hasn’t done well in this competition in close to 20 years. UCONN got a favorable seeding because of reputation, but I think they bow out before the Sweet 16…

- …Because Stanford will make it to the Sweet 16. Even in a year when the Cardinal don’t seem to have a really good roster, Mike Montgomery is one of the most underrated yet best basketball coaches there is, and he knows how to get deep into a postseason tournament. Stanford buries San Diego and surprises UCONN (although I don’t think it will be a surprise). And they even give Texas fits in the Sweet 16. That could be the best game of the round of 16.

- Don’t be fooled by Maryland’s #6 seed; they are still the defending national champions, and will play like it in the tournament. This was actually a good draw the first rounds for them. They’ll make it to the Sweet 16, and if by some freak of nature Florida isn’t waiting for them, could find an easy path to the Elite 8.

- Anybody who knows me knows that I am never big on Xavier. They just never live up to their pre-tournament hype. They will probably beat a game Troy State in the first round but will get the defending champs in the second round, where they will die on the vine.

- Florida got a favorable draw to the Sweet 16, but it will get tough for them after that. If it comes down to coaching and depth, Maryland will give them fits. That said, Billy Donovan has the depth to give Maryland and Texas fits in the Regionals. The Gators have been to the Final Four before; they know how to get there.

Midwest Region

- This tournament has some of the best #8 vs. #9 first round games in recent years. Oregon’s opening game against Utah looks like a slugfest. But Oregon played well down the stretch and lived up to their pre-season ranking. They are coming into the tournament playing the way they should have been playing all season. Unfortunately, even if they get by Utah…

- …Kentucky awaits in the next round, and nobody is playing better than Kentucky, the pre-tournament favorite to win it all. Problem is there is no real go-to guy on Kentucky. I like Keith Bogans as much as the next guy, but he has been playing way over his head since January. If things get tough for the Wildcats, as they are sure to past the Sweet 16, they are going to need somebody to raise their level of play at nut-crunching time.

- Upset Special #1: Weber State has won 17 games in a row, second longest to Kentucky. And like the Wildcats they went undefeated in conference play. Wisconsin won the regular season Big 10 because the conference is in a power vacuum at the moment and nobody else played any good. I’m just not impressed with Wisconsin’s “quality wins” against supposedly “tough” conference foes. Not only does Weber State win this game, they take out either Dayton or Tulsa to reach the Sweet 16. Dayton probably wins a tough one against Tulsa, though, but that is as far as they go.

- Southern Illinois surprised everybody on their way to the Sweet 16 last year; as good as they are and as much as they deserve to be here this year, they won’t repeat as Cinderella. Missouri is a tough first round game, and even if they got by them (a definite possibility since I think the Tigers were seeded too high at #6), the winner of Marquette-Holy Cross awaits. Dwayne Wade has been a monster this season and can carry Marquette on his shoulders, what they may need to get through the draw, but their opening round match with Holy Cross will be a classis. This is Holy Cross’s third straight trip to the dance and they have something to prove.

- Indiana and Alabama is a dog of a game. Indiana has not played well all season long, and Alabama I really don’t think belongs here. So this is another don’t-care match-up. But the “winner” has Pittsburgh awaiting them in the next round. Pitt will have no trouble with Wagner, and they have proven in the past that even with a not-so-healthy Brandin Knight they can play with the big boys.

West Region

- Somebody up there really doesn’t like either Arizona or Gonzaga. Everybody’s favorite big-time and mid-major just can’t get a break in the draw. That said, Vermont is an easy opening game for Arizona, and Cincinnati, although seeded higher, will fall to the Zags. I’m never high on Cincinnati; they always get mad props and they always get a high seed – and they always die on the vine. This year will be no different. Still, it won’t be an easy game for the Zags, and they get Arizona in the next round.

- Upset Special #2: Notre Dame played like shit down the stretch, losing their last three regular season games, then were the very first team bounced from the Big East Tournament, not even making the quarters. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the highest shooting teams in the country and they hit the boards. This may be their very first trip to the dance, but they are catching the Irish at the right time. UWM will prove why the Big East gets dissed at tournament time.

- Illinois is a Johnny-come-lately. They are good but Western Kentucky is as balanced as they come. And like Holy Cross in the Midwest, they are motivated, experienced at tournament time, and tired of losing in the first round. The winner of this game has a good chance at getting to the Sweet 16.

- Creighton had the best record in the country of any team not named Kentucky. They knocked off some big names during the regular season, but were spotty against some weak conference foes down the stretch. Still, a match-up with Central Michigan in the first round is the best mid-major match-up of the tournament. Creighton has been highly-rated all season long, so an upset isn’t an unreasonable expectation. That said, Duke awaits the winner. Creighton, with its sublime shooting, is a better match-up against the Blue Devils.

- I’ve never liked John Calipari, so I’m not sold on Memphis. Their first-round foe, Arizona State, is a questionable qualifier but they have come up big against big-time teams. Still, Memphis can throw lots of bodies at you and run you into the ground. The winner will probably get Kansas, who arguably could have been a #1 seed. Neither Memphis nor ASU have what it takes to get by the Jayhawks, who will have a tough enough time in this half of the bracket. This is the easy part for Kansas; in the Regionals awaits Duke and probably Arizona.

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