The Sport Authority : Baseball 1999 NL

Baseball '99

National League Report

by David Kennedy

I don't know why Rich went through all that hot air analysis with the American League when there is so much of a financial disparity between the haves and the have-nots that I can sum up in one word who is going to win the AL - Yankees.

There is also a wide financial disparity in this league, also, but it isn't nearly as bad as in the junior circuit. But clearly the gulf is defined by money. So my analysis of every team this season will be punctuated by the approximate payroll amount of each team. That is because every team whose payroll is below $42 million dollars has absolutely no shot at even winning its division, let alone a playoff of any sort. Oh sure, all of them will still be analyzed, but because of their limited resources, these teams with no shot will spend most of the season figuring out how to unload pricy salaries to the teams with the deep pockets still in the pennant chase.

As with every preview I write I won't choose any division winners. I'll just indicate whom I think will contend and whom I think won't contend. In each division I'll choose a sleeper pick. Keep in mind the sleeper pick is not who I think will win the division, but a team I think can surprise people and contend right up to the end, maybe even pull it out and surprise us with a playoff spot. I will only guarantee this: Nobody below the $42 million cutoff line I have drawn will be the sleeper pick. That's how bad the disparity is between the teams with money and the teams without.

Why is this division even a matter of conjecture with anybody? The same team has won this division for the last eight years, and that isn't going to change this year. This is the one division in this league where money is the paramount reason why one team has had a stranglehold here. But we have to do this by the numbers, So...

...Lets begin our little analysis by eliminating Montreal, Florida and Philadelphia from the jump. There are more than fifty players in major league baseball, enough to fill up two full rosters, which will make more than the $8 million that Montreal will spend on its entire roster. This is a team with no money to pay anybody; nobody in the front office who knows what the hell they're doing; no decent place to play their home games (Olympic Stadium is an antiseptic joke); and no fan base among its xenophobic, francophone population who gives a rats ass about them. That said, there actually is some talent here worth watching. Most notably OF Vladimir Guerrero, who looks like he could be one of the best all-around players in the game in the next decade, but who certainly will be playing in All-Star games and winning championships somewhere else before long. Rondell White still has some pop at the plate, and 2B Wilton Guerrero looks like he will be was a find from the Dodgers. But beyond those three this batting order will go unknown and unnoticed. The only real pitching bright spot is stopper Ugueth Urbina, who managed to squeeze out 34 out of this bunch. The only bright spot in the rotation last season was Dustin Hermanson, but I'm not sold on him as a regular performer just yet; if he is I'm sure management will figure out a way to either trade him or screw him up. The best thing the Expos have going for them is manager Felipe Alou, who for some reason decided to waste his genius here by signing a multi-year contract during the offseason instead of going someplace like the Dodgers, who would have won the pennant had they snared him for themselves (we're still scratching our heads). Alou must be blessed with bounds of optimism, because it breaks everyone else's heart that he has to go down with this ship every season. I'm never an advocate of relocation, but this is one organization that needs to do itself and everybody else a favor by packing up and moving to greener pastures (This is the one instance where nobody will complain).

If you're like me, you still haven't forgiven owner Wayne Huizenga for breaking up the world champion he had in Florida. Quick, can anybody name more than two players on the Marlins? Didn't think so. So I'll name the only reason worth wasting the brain cells (P Livan Hernandez, 1B Derrick Lee) and then move on. Stated simply, this team can't do much of anything; they can't hit, they can pitch, and they can't field. The only thing that will save them from being the worst thing since the Titanic and sinking even further than the 54 wins they somehow managed to swindle is that Montreal is going to be worse. Can you believe that management is still trying to slice the payroll down from the current $15 million? And lets not get started on new manager John Boles: Can you say "K-Mart Blue Light Special"? I know a few sandlot baseball teams that put up a better effort than this. If Ken Starr wants somebody to investigate, I nominate Wayne Huizenga.

At least in Philadelphia we can begin to talk about a team that is at least trying. The Phillies have actually managed to put together a competitive team with $32 million. There some pop in their bats in the outfield (Ron Gant, Bobby Abreu, Doug Glanville) and the infield (Scott Rolen, Desi Relaford, Mike Lieberthal), and they are improving defensively. As long as Curt Schilling is anchoring the rotation with newcomer Chad Ogea they have a good chance of winning every three days, but more depth is needed in the rotation to be competitive every day, and it doesn't look like Schilling will last here beyond the trade deadline. There isn't much help in the bullpen to get to closer Jeff Brantley in the ninth inning, thought. Manager Terry Francona has managed this young team with a lot of patience; its now time to see if he can become more of an intense manager and problem solve and get some more wins out of this ever-improving bunch. They won 68 games in '97 and '75 games in '98; I think the trend upward continues. But while around .500 is realistic, anything better is a stretch.

Scoring runs was a big problem for the other New York, a team that had lots of pop in their bats but had little to show for it. By signing Rickey Henderson, they've put a proven run-scorer at the top of the order, moved the bat control of Edgardo Alfonso behind him, and put Brian McRae and Rey Ordonez at the bottom of the batting order where they can do more good. That will give the meat of the batting order (John Olerud, Mike Piazza, Robin "The Booby" Ventura, Bobby Bonilla) the chance to do what they do best, drive in runs. I'm not exactly sold on Bonilla and Ventura just yet; Bonilla failed here once already and Ventura has never seen this league. Despite the approximately $62 millions payroll the Mets still didn't do much to address their suspect pitching, which let them down during the latter stages of the playoff hunt last season. Al Leiter is the anchor but I think last year was a career year for him and it won't get any better. Rick Reed and Bobby Jones are adequate, and Hideo Nomo still has stuff but doesn't scare anybody anymore. And I've been waiting for closer John Franco to fall off for a few years now (still waiting). Manager Bobby Valentine has the best team he's had here, and they'll knock a few people around. But the big question remains, is it enough to get them into at least a wild-card spot?

The only thing Atlanta hasn't been able to do these last eight years is get to and win the World Series. The only thing that would keep them from winning this division is if the Yankees were in it. As usual, they'll win it again. With a $72 million payroll, the Braves don't even reload; they've had the same full arsenal of weapons since the beginning of the decade. Even without Andres Gallaraga for the season they'll still be the favorites to get to the World Series. From top to bottom: Walt Weiss, Bret Boone, Chipper Jones, Brian Jordan, Javy Lopez, Ryan Klesko, Andruw Jones. No weaknesses there. And with a bench that consists of Otis Nixon, Gerald Williams, Tony Graffanino, Ozzie Guillen, Keith Lockhart, and Danny Bautista, Manager Bobby Cox has so many options that Galarraga's season-long injury constitutes no more than a trifling annoyance. The strength here is obviously the starting pitching: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz are the best starting three there is. Kevin Millwood is ready to break out, and all rookie Bruce Chen has to do is not screw it up. There is no stopper in the bullpen because Kerry Ligtenberg is done for the season, also. But I'm sure with, as deep a farm system as the Braves have, Cox will find somebody to pick up the slack. With the other four entrants in this divisional starting gate, is it any wonder the Braves win it year in and year out.

The Sleeper: I'm not picking one this year. Not in this division. The Braves have this one so locked up there are prisons less secure.

In past years this has been the division that was the most wide open, because the one team with the superior talent found ways not to win it despite an overwhelming advantage over the rest. Well, that same team has an advantage again this year, but it isn't nearly as big as it has been in past years. And there is a lot of talent spread around the entire division.

Still, I have to eliminate Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, three small markets that just don't have the scratch to put it together for an entire season. Manager Gene LaMont was hailed as a patient player's manager in 1997 when Pittsburgh, a team filled with youngsters, finished in second place with 80 wins. Last year that same patience was rewarded with 69 wins and a tag of indecisiveness for LaMont. This year's team will have a payroll of around $12 million dollars, and some of the same players who were tagged as future stars in '97 are now gone to greener pastures. The only bright spots in an anemic lineup are Jason Kendall, Kevin Young and Jose Guillen, who will not strike fear in any of their NL opponents. Jason Schmidt and Francisco Cordova are competent pitchers on a team that will not provide them with many runs, and Pete Schourek has seen better days. There are better closers than Rich Loiselle, and god knows there are much better bullpens to even get to him in the ninth. Quite frankly I'm not holding out much hope for this team even when they do get their new stadium in 2002.

With the addition of Greg Vaughn to the everyday lineup, Cincinnati's payroll has increased to $26 million. This is the first payroll increase for the Reds in four years, which deserves front-page headlines even for this penny-pinching organization. Even with Vaughn in the lineup there really isn't much hope. Barry Larkin has seen better days, Aaron Boone will stagnate without his brother in the lineup, and just when is Vaughn going to see good pitching with Dmitri Young and Sean Casey batting behind him. What will keep the Reds in games is their better-than-average starting pitching, with Denny Neagle, Pete Harnisch, Brad Tomko, Jason Bere, and Steve Avery. They'll need to; I'm not holding out much hope for the bullpen, where it's anybody's guess. Manager Jack McKeon stabilized the team after taking over in midseason, but I don't think it will get much better than the 77 wins they had last season. Around .500 is not too unrealistic in a division as schizophrenic as this one.

I'll say this for Milwaukee, there is some talent in the lineup with some pop in their bats. Fernando Vina, Jeff Cirillo, Dave Nilsson, Sean Berry, Jeromy Burnitz, Marquis Grissom and Jose Valentin can score runs with the best in the league, and Nilsson, Vina, Valentin and Grissom are stellar up-the-middle defenders. What kills this team is the pitching staff can't hold on to leads despite the run support they get from the offense. I like Phil Garner as a manager, but being saddled with a rotation of Cal Eldard, Scott Karl, Steve Woodard, and Bill Pulsipher has got to try even his patience. There is some decent pitching in the bullpen, but more times than not closer Bob Wichman is in over his head. Management has spent most of its $37 million payroll on bats, and with good success. What they need to spend their limited financial resources on is more pitching, but the resources just aren't there. The Brewers are always an exciting team to watch, though.

The only thing I think I can predict with accuracy is that Mark McGwire won't hit 70 home runs this season. So now maybe the attention in St. Louis will now be devoted to concentrating their $50 million payroll on winning some games. The first five batters in the order will do a lion's share of the damage (Edgar Renteria, J.D. Drew, McGwire, Ray Lankford, Eric Davis) and then after that manager Tony LaRussa's little razzle-dazzle with batting the pitcher eighth won't even work anymore. The rotation is decent if it could stay healthy for an entire season, but among Matt Morris, Donovan Osborne, Darren Oliver, and Kent Mercker there is no anchor. Still, if the starting pitching holds up the Cardinals have as deep a bullpen as there is in the game (closer Juan Acevedo, Ricky Bottalico, Kent Bottenfeld, Scott Radinsky, Mike Mohler). There should be a marked improvement over 83 wins this season, and in this division that at least puts them in the thick of the wild-card race.

It will be much more difficult for Chicago to make it to the playoffs without Kerry Woods to anchor the pitching rotation. Piecing together consistent quality starts with Kevin Tapani, Terry Mulholland, Steve Trachsel, and John Lieber becomes that much more difficult for manager Jim Riggleman, but this is the NL Central, so it isn't impossible. Closer Rod Beck got lots of help from a deep bullpen and Riggleman's expert managing of it (I thought Beck would be finished last year; I was wrong). The Cubs have as scary a lineup as anybody in this division with Lance Johnson, Mickey Morandini, Mark Grace, Henry Rodriguez, Gary Gaetti, and Jeff Blauser. And the world finally found out just how great Sammy Sosa really is (I've been saying it for six years). Two question marks could be Gaetti's age (41) and Benito Santiago's health behind the plate. Still, couple the master motivator and disciplinarian managing of Riggleman with an inspired lineup and you have a recipe for another fun playoff run in the North Side. This is a prime example of a team with a $54 million payroll that has management who knows how to spend wisely on players whom can help them.

The Big Question: Is Houston still the favorite to win the Central without Moises Alou all season? The Answer: You Bet! There would have been question were Ken Caminiti not here to hike the team payroll up to $51 million, but he's back where he started. Put him in the lineup with Craig Biggio, Derek Bell, Jeff "Alligator" Bagwell, and Carl Everett and Alou's replacement, Richard Hidalgo, and there is still no better everyday lineup in the division. By far the best pitching in the division with Shane Reynolds, Mike Hampton, Jose Lima and Sean Bergman, all of whom match up well with anybody in the bigs, even without Randy Johnson. And there are very few pitchers in all of baseball that throw harder with such precision than closer Billy Wagner. Its been two years since Larry Dierker came out of the broadcast booth to manage the Astros, and he has won the division both years. I wasn't sold on him before but I'm going to get off his back; he obviously knows what the hell he's doing: 102 wins last season will attest to that. I don't think they get to that plateau again this year, but they clearly can get to more than 90 wins with this bunch, even without Alou.

The Sleeper: For over nine years I've gone with Chicago, and they clearly can win this division if Houston even so much as hiccups, but the Cubs are a good team whom people are picking to contend, so I'm going with somebody different. If St. Louis can stay healthy and get career years out of their starting pitching, then McGwire plays longball on baseball's biggest stage in October.

This is by far the toughest division in the bigs, and certainly the most entertaining. There is not one team here with a payroll under $30 million, and the two teams with payrolls below $50 at least have front offices that know how to find talent that can make them competitive. What's more, all five teams have managers who can get the most out of their talent.

However, there are two obvious loser here, San Diego and the fans that got snowed by them. This year's version of the Marlins, it's hard for me to figure out who is more despicable, the Marlins or the Padres? At least Wayne Huizenga was honest and up front about his intention to sell off his players. Owner John Moores pleaded with the public for a new stadium to keep his team together, punctuated his cause by getting to the World Series, got the public to vote him the funds for a stadium - and then once he got what he wanted immediately sold off his best players and reduce the payroll to around $32 million, reducing it by close to $23 million. Now what's left is barely recognizable as the team that took Yankee Stadium only five months earlier. Gone are Greg Vaughn, Ken Caminiti, Steve Finley, Joey Hamilton and Kevin Brown, five of the seven elite players directly responsible for the Padres' 98 wins and NL pennant in 1998.

What's worse, Tony Gwynn, has been loyal to this organization for over 17 years, turning down much bigger money elsewhere to stay with a team that has clearly not evinced even a smidgen of respect in return. At 39, Gwynn has been at the baseball summit with this team three times, only to have the Padres pull the rug from under him twice before. At the twilight of his career, when he should be enjoying his notoriety with a competitive ballclub, he gets to wallow in baseball purgatory once again. That ownership could do this to a certain Hall-of-Famer - who has done all he has for them and killed himself for them, who has one of the best work ethics in all of sports, who is arguably the classiest, well-liked and gentlemanly competitors in all of society -- is nothing short of criminal.

There is actually some talent left in San Diego (Reggie Sanders, Wally Joyner, Andy Ashby, Trevor Hoffman), and they do have a first rate manager in Bruce Bochy, so they won't be nearly as bad as the '98 Marlins. But I'm so mad now that I can't even analyze it objectively. I'm sure Tony Gwynn is too much of a gentleman to say it, so I will: John Moores, you are the north end of a south-bound brontosaurus, who would do us all a favor by getting out of the business of being miserable and quickly going about the business of becoming extinct. Until that happens, remember that people tend to like a kiss and some foreplay before you fuck them in the ass!

I'm sure that most people have seen all the big money Arizona have spent on premier free-agents and concluded that their $70 million payroll will get them in the playoff hunt. The batting order has above average power and can put the ball in play (Tony Womack, Steve Finley, Jay Bell, Travis Lee, Matt Williams, Luis Gonzalez), but unless Williams returns to form and becomes the man in the middle of this lineup it won't scare any other lineup in this division (even San Diego's). The Diamondbacks certainly have a horse at the top of their rotation in Randy Johnson, who along with Todd Stottlemyre, Andy Benes, Omar Daal, and Armando Reynoso makes this one of the better rotations in the game. But the bullpen is still in question, with aging closer Gregg Olson coming off his first 30-save season in five years; without some more depth behind him I'm not sold on Olson repeating last year's performance. Owner Jerry Colangelo has more than proven that he will spend whatever he has to to make this big market team a big time success on the field. But let's not get too excited here; remember this is an expansion team that is only in its second year of existence. Until management has more of a track record, they aren't serious contenders down the stretch just yet.

The biggest addition in Colorado is new manager Jim Leyland, who has made winners out of every team he's managed. Leyland inherits possibly the scariest batting order in baseball, certainly in the NL West (Darryl Hamilton, Neifi Perez, Larry Walker, Dante Bichette, Todd Helton, Vinny Castilla, Mike Lansing), especially at home in Denver. Problem is that a lot of the air is let out of their bats on the road, and that alone accounts for the home-road discrepancy. Maybe if owner John McMorris spent more of the $52 million payroll on line-drive hitters who can hit anywhere there would be less of a discrepancy. Lord knows trying to spend money on arms is futile; no pitcher worth his salt would want to destroy his career by coming anywhere near the dense mile-high air of Denver. A shame really, because Darryl l Kile, Pedro Astacio and Brian Bohannon are good pitchers anywhere else but here. Home or on the road the bullpen just can't cut it, so Leyland is going to go with a bullpen-by-committee. That Leyland is here will mean that the Rockies will do much better than the 77 wins they accumulated last season. I'd bet on them being contenders more than the Diamondbacks.

As with Arizona, I'm sure most people have taken note of the obscene amount of money Los Angeles has spent in an attempt to bring a pennant to southern California and conceded the NL West to the Dodgers. Well, I'm not sold just yet. If all you are looking at is the $80 million payroll, the largest in professional sports, then you aren't looking far enough. Too much of it was spent on Kevin Brown, one of the two or three best pitchers in the game over the last four years, but at 34 would you want to bet he will be the workhorse of the league for the next seven years? Can you say "overspent"? Combine Brown with Chan Ho Park, Carlos Perez, Ismail Valdez and Darren Dreifort and you have a rotation whose combined ERA was below 4.00 and second best in the bigs only to Atlanta's. That the Dodgers won only 83 games with this good a rotation should tell you something about their lineup, which gave them piss-poor run support. With that in mind, will the addition of Todd Hundley and Devon White to Eric Young, Gary Sheffield, Raul Mondesi, Eric Karros, and Mark Grudzielanek really make up for the runs they didn't score last season? Owner Rupert Murdoch has proven that he will spend whatever he thinks is necessary to get new manager Davey Johnson what he needs to win. What Murdoch and the front office hasn't proven is that they have the know-how to run a successful major league baseball organization, something we knew the previous management group knew how to do for over 50 years. America's version of Manchester United they aren't yet.

Despite a middle-of-the-road payroll of $48 million, San Francisco clearly has a front office and management group that knows what they are doing. GM Brian Sabean knows how to get players who can win at less than exorbitant prices. Manager Dusty Baker is so smart and so good at finding ways to win that he alone is the greatest asset the Giants have. The batting order is set and as scary as any in the majors (Marvin Benard, Bill Mueller, Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, Ellis Burks, J.T. Snow) and even the bench is stacked (Stan Javier, Charley Hayes, Wilson Delgado). While not an especially deep rotation they seem to get the job done (Shaun Estes, Mark Gardner, Kirk Reuter, Russ Ortiz). The starters don't need to go deep into the game with this bullpen (closer Robb Nen, Julian Tavarez, Rich Rodriguez, Alan Embree, John Johnstone, Steve Soderstrom). This team has won 92 and 89 games the past two seasons with this lineup basically intact. That Baker knows how to mesh them together and get the most out of even his role players in game situations is a testament to how well things are going for them. As with the previous two seasons, Sabean and Baker will keep this team in the thick of the pennant race through the last weekend, and have as good a shot as anybody else in to win the division or the wild-card. A great way to go into 2000, when they open up a new stadium.

The Sleeper: This one is too easy, the Giants. Because of the big money spent in Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles they have been written off. Nobody seems to recognize that in '97 and '98 the Giants were operating with a limited budget and still managed to be playing after the last day of the season. Like I said before, Baker is just too good of a manager not to figure out how to bring this horse in the money.

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